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The Big Mac index 巨無霸指數(shù) The all-meaty dollar Burgernomics gets to grips with a strong greenback 肥厚的美元 “漢堡經(jīng)濟學”著手應對強勢美元 It Is perhaps not surprising that the worst-performing major currency in the world this year is the Turkish lira. Many emerging-market currencies have taken a battering since the election in November of Donald Trump raised expectations of faster monetary tightening in America and sent the dollar soaring. But the lira has many other troubles to contend with, too: terrorist bombings, an economic slowdown, alarm over plans by the president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to strengthen his powers, and a central bank reluctant to raise interest rates to defend the currency. It has plunged to record lows. According to the Big Mac index, our patty-powered currency guide, it is now undervalued by 45.7% against the dollar. 今年世界上表現(xiàn)最差的主要貨幣是土耳其里拉,這也許并不令人意外。去年11月唐納德·特朗普的勝選推高了對美國加快實行貨幣緊縮政策的預期,引發(fā)美元飆升。隨后,許多新興市場的貨幣便遭到重創(chuàng)。不過,里拉還要應對其他許多麻煩:恐怖炸彈襲擊、經(jīng)濟放緩、總統(tǒng)埃爾多安為加強自身權(quán)力而采取的各種計劃引發(fā)恐慌,以及土耳其央行不愿提高利率來捍衛(wèi)本國貨幣。里拉已暴跌至歷史低位。根據(jù)我們以漢堡肉餅為靈感的貨幣指南——巨無霸指數(shù),如今里拉相對于美元被低估了45.7%。 If the amount, value, level, or volume of something soars, it quickly increases by a great deal. (JOURNALISM)If something takes a battering, it suffers very badly as a result of a particular event or action. 這個詞組,你們?nèi)ゲ榕=?,和柯林斯,會得到完全不同的體驗,后者明顯更有利于掌握學習——喵大語錄 The Big Mac index is built on the idea of purchasing-power parity, the theory that in the long run currencies will converge until the same amount of money buys the same amount of goods and services in every country. A Big Mac currently costs $5.06 in America but just 10.75 lira ($2.75) in Turkey, implying that the lira is undervalued. 巨無霸指數(shù)以購買力平價這一理念為理論基礎(chǔ),即長遠來看,不同貨幣的匯率會自動調(diào)整,直到相同數(shù)量的商品和服務在所有國家中都售價相同。一個巨無霸漢堡在美國售價為5.06美元,但在土耳其只賣10.25里拉(2.75美元),這就意味著里拉的價值被低估。 If there is parity between two things, they are equal. (FORMAL) If there is parity between the units of currency of two countries, the exchange rate is such that the units are equal to each other. (TECHNICAL) However, other currencies are even cheaper. In Big Mac terms, the Mexican peso is undervalued by a whacking 55.9% against the greenback. Last week it also plumbed a record low as Mr Trump reiterated some of his campaign threats against Mexico. The peso has lost a tenth of its value against the dollar since November. Of big countries, only Russia offers a cheaper Big Mac, in dollar terms, even though the rouble has strengthened over the past year. 然而,其他的貨幣對美元的估值還要更低。根據(jù)巨無霸指數(shù),墨西哥比索相對美元被低估高達55.9%。上周,因特朗普重提競選時曾向墨西哥發(fā)出的某些威脅,比索也跌至紀錄低位。自去年11月以來,比索兌美元已貶值10%。在大國中,以美元計,只有俄羅斯的巨無霸賣得更便宜,盡管過去一年中盧布已經(jīng)走強。 The euro zone is also prey to political uncertainty. Elections are scheduled this year in the Netherlands, France and Germany, and possible in Italy. The euro recently fell to its lowest level since 2003. Britain’s Brexit vote has had an even bigger effect on the pound, which has fallen to $1.21, a 31-year low. According to the Big Mac index, the euro and the pound are undervalued against the dollar by 19.7% and 26.3%, respectively. 同樣受政治不確定因素影響的還有歐元區(qū)。荷蘭、法國、德國(也許還會有意大利)都預定在今年舉行大選。歐元近來已跌至2003年來的最低水平。英國脫歐公投對英磅的沖擊還要更大,其兌美元的匯率已跌至1.21,為31年來的最低水平。根據(jù)巨無霸指數(shù),歐元與英鎊相對于美元分別被低估19.7%和26.3%。 One of the drawbacks of the Big Mac index is that it takes no account of labour costs. It should surprise no one that a Big Mac costs less in Shanghai than it does in San Francisco, since Chinese workers earn far less than their American counterparts. So in a slightly more sophisticated version of the Big Mac index, we take account of a country’s average income. 巨無霸指數(shù)的缺點之一就是它并未計入各國勞動力成本的差異。人們應該并不會因上海的巨無霸要比舊金山的便宜而意外,因為中國工人的薪水要比美國工人低得多。因此,在一個稍微復雜些的巨無霸指數(shù)中,我們將一個國家的平均收入考慮在內(nèi)。 Historically, this adjustment has tended to raise currencies’ valuations against the dollar, so emerging-market currencies tend to look more reasonably priced. The Chinese yuan, for example, is 44% undervalued against the dollar according to our baseline Big Mac index, but only 7% according to the adjusted one. The deluxe Big Mac index has typically made rich-world currencies look more expensive. Because western Europeans have higher costs of living and lower incomes than Americans, the euro has traded at around a 25% premium against the dollar in income-adjusted burger terms since the euro’s inception. 在過去,這種調(diào)整往往會令各國貨幣相對美元估值升高,新興市場的貨幣估值因而看起來會更趨于合理。例如,依照“基礎(chǔ)版”的巨無霸指數(shù),人民幣對美元的估值低了44%,而據(jù)調(diào)整過的指數(shù),這個數(shù)字僅為7%。“加強版”巨無霸指數(shù)通常都令富裕國家的貨幣顯得更為昂貴。由于西歐人較美國人生活成本高而收入低,根據(jù)收入調(diào)整的巨無霸指數(shù)來衡量的話,自歐元面世后其兌美元匯率的溢價約達25%。 Deluxe goods or services are better in quality and more expensive than ordinary ones.1、A premium is a sum of money that you pay regularly to an insurance company for an insurance policy. 2、A premium is a sum of money that you have to pay for something in addition to the normal cost. 3、Premium goods are of a higher than usual quality and are often expensive. 4、If something is at a premium, it is wanted or needed, but is difficult to get or achieve. 5、If you buy or sell something at a premium, you buy or sell it at a higher price than usual, for example because it is in short supply. 6、If you place a high premium on a quality or characteristic or put a high premium on it, you regard it as very important. But what once seemed to be an immutable axiom of burgernomics is true no longer. So strong is the dollar that even the adjusted Big Mac index finds the euro undervalued. The dollar is now trading at a 14-year high in trade-weighted terms. Emerging-world economies may struggle to pay off dollar-denominated debts. American firms may find themselves at a disadvantage against foreign competition. And American tourists will get more burgers for their buck in Europe. 然而,“漢堡經(jīng)濟學”中一度看似顛撲不破的公理再也站不住腳了。美元如此強勢,連調(diào)整過的巨無霸指數(shù)也顯示歐元被低估。按照貿(mào)易加權(quán)計算,如今美元的匯率為14年來的最高水平。新興經(jīng)濟體要償還以美元計價的債務也許會很艱難。美國的公司或許會發(fā)覺自己在面對外來競爭時處于不利地位。而美國游客將會在歐洲用美元買到更多的漢堡。 An axiom is a statement or idea which people accept as being true. (FORMAL) |
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來自: 愛夏的毛毛蟲 > 《經(jīng)濟學人》