首先，我們來解決第一個問題：亞馬遜帝國的繁榮以及繁榮背后所蘊藏的風險。

亞馬遜是一家很了不起的公司，之前它是在網(wǎng)上賣書的，美國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上每消費一元，其中一多半都是亞馬遜的貢獻。但它又不僅僅在網(wǎng)上賣書，它也是世界領(lǐng)先的云計算供應(yīng)商。而且它也有自己的實體產(chǎn)品，比如電池、杏仁、西裝以及音箱等等，這些我都沒用過，只用過Kindle。文章怎么說的呢？我們一起來看看：

Amazon is an extraordinary company. The former bookseller accounts for more than half of every new dollar spent online in America. It is the world’s leading provider of cloud computing. This year Amazon will probably spend twice as much on television as HBO, a cable channel. Its own-brand physical products include batteries, almonds, suits and speakers linked to a virtual voice-activated assistant that can control, among other things, your lamps and sprinkler.

本段從亞馬遜的三重身份：圖書銷售公司(The former bookseller)、云計算供應(yīng)商(provider of cloud computing)以及實體產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)商(physical products)來介紹亞馬遜帝國的繁榮，論證了首句：Amazon is an extraordinary company. 作為圖書銷售公司，美國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上每消費一美元，其中亞馬遜就占了一半以上；作為云計算供應(yīng)商，領(lǐng)先世界，投資金額龐大；作為實體產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)商，其產(chǎn)品涉及生活的方方面面，還有虛擬語音助手等高科技產(chǎn)品，這是多么繁榮的企業(yè)帝國！

文章第二段從市場角度來分析亞馬遜的強盛。自2015年伊始，該公司股價高漲，遠遠跑贏同期的標準普爾500指數(shù)；市值達4000億美元，位列全球第五（前幾名分別為蘋果、谷歌、微軟、伯克希爾·哈撒韋，第六是Facebook，騰訊位列第十）。雖然亞馬遜市值高，但它的收入很少，因為大部分收入都用于擴大規(guī)模了。但是，投資者比較看好它的前景，它的市值，也正是基于投資者的預(yù)期。

Yet Amazon’s shareholders are working on the premise that it is just getting started. Since the beginning of 2015 its share price has jumped by 173%, seven times quicker than in the two previous years (and 12 times faster than the S&P 500 index). With a market capitalisation of some $400bn, it is the fifth-most-valuable firm in the world. Never before has a company been worth so much for so long while making so little money: 92% of its value is due to profits expected after 2020.

這一部分建議大家背誦，或看著中文翻譯復(fù)述下來。因為這一部分的句式很標準，也經(jīng)常用到，是很好的中翻英對照材料，如果沒有看過這種表達，很難把中文翻成地道的英文。比如：股價上漲…，是同期大盤的…倍，share price has jumped by...，... times faster than the Shanghai Composite Index；市值達...元，位居第幾/是第幾大公司，With a market capitalisation of ..., it is the fifth-most-valuable firm in the world. 大家可以看看中國企業(yè)官網(wǎng)的英文介紹，很多讀起來佶屈聱牙，并不地道，老外看了也不懂。地道的翻譯，一定要從英文材料中汲取靈感。

Never before has a company... 這句話給大家解釋一下：

• Never before 是否定詞在句首，應(yīng)該用倒裝。

• Worth so much 指市值高，是 valuable 的同義替換。上市公司的市值與其收入并沒有直接的聯(lián)系，而是和股價有關(guān)聯(lián)：在流通股票數(shù)量一定的情況下，股價越高，市值越大。雖然亞馬遜的收入不高，但投資者對它的預(yù)期很高，所以提前把股價炒到了很高的位置，也就是末尾所說的：92% of its value is due to profits expected after 2020. 因此，它的市值也大了。

我們來看翻譯：

既然投資者對亞馬遜寄予了相當高的期望，亞馬遜必須保持高速增長來滿足這個期望，一旦增長不達預(yù)期，其市值相當大的一部分將變成泡沫，這就是亞馬遜繁榮背后的風險所在：

That is because investors anticipate both an extraordinary rise in revenue, from sales of $136bn last year to half a trillion over the next decade, and a jump in profits. The hopes invested in it imply that it will probably become more profitable than any other firm in America. Ground for scepticism does not come much more fertile than this: Amazon will have to grow faster than almost any big company in modern history to justify its valuation. Can it possibly do so?

這一段是一個過渡段，從繁榮過渡到風險。我們接上段，為什么92%的市值來自于2020年以后的預(yù)期盈利呢？這是因為投資者認為，未來十年，亞馬遜的收入和利潤都會有巨大的增長。而希望越大失望越大，投資者的這種希望迫使亞馬遜的盈利能力要超過美國的其它企業(yè)，才能保證其估值的合理，它能做到嗎？

這里先給大家介紹一個概念——估值。金融領(lǐng)域有一個指標，叫“市盈率”（P/E ratio, 或簡稱“PE”），它等于“股價(P)÷盈利(E)”，能體現(xiàn)估值水平。一般來說，以20為界，低于20，說明估值水平低，有增長空間，高于20，說明估值水平高，有泡沫。當然不同的行業(yè)其正常的估值也不同。以亞馬遜為例，投資者對該公司的發(fā)展前景看好，把股價(P)炒了上去，這就要求亞馬遜必須快速發(fā)展，把盈利(E)提上去，才能保證市盈率(PE)的合理，如果E跟不上，會使PE過高，帶來泡沫。這也就是文中所說：Amazon will have to grow faster than almost any big company in modern history to justify its valuation.

接下來我們解決一些生詞：

The hopes invested in it →The hopes that are invested in it，寄托在亞馬遜(it)上的希望，invest 除了“投資”，還可以表示“以...賦予...”，如文中意思，常見搭配為 invest A with. B，例如：

• Richard's heavy-rimmed glasses invested him with an air of intelligence.

  理查德的厚邊眼鏡使他看上去很有智慧。

• The buildings are invested with a nation's history.

  這些建筑承載著一個國家的歷史。

• A tsar was a living icon, invested with deep historical and religious significance.

  沙皇曾是活著的圣像,具有深遠的歷史和宗教意義

  
  

此外，invest 還有“授權(quán)，授責，授職”的意思，在之前的《經(jīng)濟學人》中也出現(xiàn)過，不過我忘了是哪一期，暫時從詞典中找了一些例句供大家學習，下次遇到的時候再細講：

• The constitution had invested him with certain powers.

  憲法授予他某些權(quán)力

• Our government has invested the minister for trade with all the necessary powers to resolve the dispute.

  我國政府已授予貿(mào)易部長一切必要的權(quán)力來解決此次爭端。

Ground for scepticism does not come much more fertile than this. 首先，否定意思+比較級=最高級，所以這個句子表示一種“最”的概念→This is the most fertile ground for scepticism.

其次，我們再來分析 fertile 和 ground 的搭配。Fertile 是“肥沃的”的意思，Ground 是“土地”的意思，fertile ground 就是“肥沃的土地”，而 ground 又有“根據(jù)，理由”的意思，這里借用這層意思，套用 fertile ground 的搭配，表達“懷疑亞馬遜營業(yè)能力的最有說服力的根據(jù)”。

我們最后來看翻譯：

雖然亞馬遜的發(fā)展前景光明，但要成為盈利能力最強的企業(yè)，也面臨很多困難。首先，亞馬遜強敵環(huán)飼，在自身發(fā)展之時，其競爭對手不會坐以待斃：微軟懷有云計算的雄心，沃瑪特的營業(yè)額逼近5000億美元，；其次，如果亞馬遜的創(chuàng)始人兼CEO杰夫·貝佐斯走了彎路，亞馬遜就很難超過其他公司了。

It is easy to tick off (to name a list of things) some of the pitfalls. Rivals will not stand still. Microsoft has cloud-computing ambitions; Walmart already has revenues nudging $500bn and is beefing up (strengthening) online. If anything happened to Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and boss, the gap would be exceptionally hard to fill. But the striking thing about the company is how much of a chance it has of achieving such unprecedented goals.

我們說了，上一段是過渡段，這一段則是對風險的具體描述。本段從兩個方面介紹：一、亞馬遜的競爭對手；二、亞馬遜本身。競爭對手又列舉兩個栗子加以說明：微軟和沃瑪特。我們可以把這一段以思維導圖的方式呈獻給大家：

結(jié)構(gòu)直觀，生詞已在文中標出，我們直接看翻譯：

第一個問題已經(jīng)解決了，我們再來解決第二個問題：亞馬遜取得成功的兩大戰(zhàn)略。

亞馬遜取得成功取決于兩大戰(zhàn)略，可以總結(jié)為一個詞：“縱橫交錯”?！翱v”指的是時間方面，長期投資，“橫”指的是業(yè)務(wù)范圍，廣泛涉足。我們先來看第一個戰(zhàn)略：時間。當下，很多企業(yè)高管迫于壓力，只關(guān)注短期收益，但亞馬遜把眼光放得更遠。亞馬遜擁有兩大主要業(yè)務(wù)，一是電商，二是AWS，也就是它的云計算部門。

This is largely due to the firm’s unusual approach to two dimensions of corporate life. The first of these is time. In an era when executives routinely whinge about (to complain about) pressure to produce short-term results, Amazon is resolutely focused on the distant horizon. Mr Bezos emphasises continual investment to propel(to move sth. forward) its two principal businesses, e-commerce and Amazon Web Services (AWS), its cloud-computing arm.

文章劃線部分說，很多企業(yè)高管迫于壓力，只關(guān)注短期結(jié)果，而亞馬遜則把眼光放得更加長遠。“短期結(jié)果”文章用的是'produce short-term results'，“長期結(jié)果”，我們依葫蘆畫瓢，應(yīng)該是'produce long-term results'，但這樣顯得結(jié)構(gòu)僵硬；而文章用了'focus on the distant horizon'，這樣便靈活了很多。在“外交事務(wù)丨杰克遜主義的復(fù)興”一文中，我提到過：“同義變換不僅指用同義詞替換，還可以變換句子的結(jié)構(gòu)，從而達到更高的境界。”這里便是一個很好的例子。

這主要是因為該公司對企業(yè)生命的兩大方面有著非同尋常的態(tài)度。 一是時間。當下，很多企業(yè)高管迫于壓力，只關(guān)注短期收益，而亞馬遜卻堅定地把眼光放得更遠。貝索斯重視持續(xù)投資以推動其兩大主要業(yè)務(wù)一一電子商務(wù)和它的云計算部門Amazon Web Services (AWS )。

時間維度上，亞馬遜得益于三個良性循環(huán)：一、在電子商務(wù)領(lǐng)域，亞馬遜吸引的顧客越多，就有越多的零售商和制造商希望能在其平臺上出售產(chǎn)品，這讓亞馬遜有更多的資金投資新服務(wù)，比如兩小時送達服務(wù)以及流媒體視頻和音樂，這反過來又會吸引更多的顧客；二、在云計算方面，越多的顧客用AWS，亞馬遜就有更多的資金投資新服務(wù)，這又會吸引更多的顧客；三、亞馬遜的聲控助手 Alexa 方面，開發(fā)者為Alexa設(shè)計服務(wù)，它對顧客就越有用，反過來，開發(fā)者就越有原因開發(fā)新服務(wù)。

In e-commerce, the more shoppers Amazon lures, the more retailers and manufacturers want to sell their goods on Amazon. That gives Amazon more cash for new services—such as two-hour shipping and streaming video and music—which entice more shoppers. Similarly, the more customers use AWS, the more Amazon can invest in new services, which attract more customers. A third virtuous circle is starting to whirl around Alexa, the firm’s voice-activated assistant: as developers build services for Alexa, it becomes more useful to consumers, giving developers reason to create yet more services.

這段話主要講了亞馬遜兩大主要業(yè)務(wù)——電商和AWS所帶來的兩種良性循環(huán)，以及聲控助手帶來的第三種良性循環(huán)。這段話的結(jié)構(gòu)非常工整，大家也看出來了，文中我用相同顏色標出的地方，它們在結(jié)構(gòu)和內(nèi)容上相互對應(yīng)。

前兩種良性循環(huán)都是以 'the more..., the more...' 句式展開，第三種循環(huán)換了一下句式：A third virtuous circle is starting to whirl around Alexa，'Whirl around' 這里指“關(guān)于”，相當于 'center around, surround, be about'。

亞馬遜吸引越多的客戶，就有越多的錢，然后把這些錢投資到新業(yè)務(wù)上，從而吸引更多的客戶。三種良性循環(huán)的套路都是一樣的。

“吸引”文章分別用了 'lure, entice, attract' 三種表達，投資開發(fā)新業(yè)務(wù)分別用了 'more cash for new services, invest in new services, create yet more services' 三種表達。注意第一種表達'more cash for new services'中，動詞“投資”直接用介詞 'for' 表達出來，大家稍加關(guān)注一下。英語表達時，多用介詞，少用動詞，能用介詞表達的就不要用動詞；中翻英時，將中文中的動詞用英文中的介詞表達，會使譯文地道很多。

比如，我國外交部的材料中經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)下面這種句子：

• 中方呼吁建立更緊密的中美關(guān)系。

官方通常翻譯為：The Chinese side is calling to build a closer Sino-US relationship.

其實這種翻譯還可以更地道、簡潔：

The Chinese side is calling for a closer Sino-US relationship.

只要股東對這一模式保持信心，亞馬遜令人激動的估值就像自我實現(xiàn)的預(yù)言。亞馬遜可以保持投資，投資又會使公司更加強大。當然，股東信心并非憑空而來，而是受到亞馬遜的業(yè)績的鼓舞。但亞馬遜也遭遇過失敗，比如生產(chǎn)智能手機。但這一業(yè)務(wù)現(xiàn)在也開始產(chǎn)生利潤。

So long as shareholders retain their faith in this model, Amazon’s heady valuation resembles a self-fulfilling prophecy. The company will be able to keep spending, and its spending will keep making it more powerful. Their faith is sustained by Amazon’s record. It has had its failures—its attempt to make a smartphone was a debacle(complete failures). But the business is starting to crank out (produce) cash. Last year cashflow (before investment) was $16bn, more than quadruple the level five years ago.

Self-fulfilling prophecy: a prediction that directly or indirectly causes itself to become true, by the very terms of the prophecy itself, due to positive feedback between belief and behavior.

“自我實現(xiàn)預(yù)言”指的是直接或間接導致預(yù)言本身實現(xiàn)的一種預(yù)測。換句話說，積極的或者消極的預(yù)言，強烈堅持的信念，或者錯覺（被宣稱是真實的，其實是錯誤的），都可能足以影響到人們，使人們的反應(yīng)最終會導致先前錯誤的預(yù)言實現(xiàn)。

如果說亞馬遜的橫向戰(zhàn)略是長期投資，那么它的縱向戰(zhàn)略就是業(yè)務(wù)擴張。亞馬遜在年報中列出了一系列當下的和潛在的競爭對手，其中包括物流公司、搜索引擎、社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)、食品制造商以及“各種各樣的實體、數(shù)字、交互媒體”生產(chǎn)商，簡直包羅萬象！

If Amazon’s approach to time-frames is unusual, so too is the sheer breadth of its activities. The company’s list of current and possible competitors, as described in its annual filings, includes logistics firms, search engines, social networks, food manufacturers and producers of “physical, digital and interactive media of all types”. A wingspan this large is more reminiscent of a conglomerate than a retailer, which makes Amazon’s share price seem even more bloated(too big or too high): stockmarkets typically apply a “conglomerate discount” to reflect their inefficiencies.

首句承上啟下，承接上文的 time-frames，引出下文的 breadth of its activities. 這個句式用的非常好，if A is..., so too is B. 

So 或 such 在句首，句子用倒裝。今天我們遇到了兩種用倒裝的句式，大家不要光知道，還要會使用。

Wingspan 指前面的 'breadth of its activities'，活動范圍之廣。

雖然亞馬遜的業(yè)務(wù)看似很雜，但目的只有一個——吸引客戶，有了客戶就有數(shù)據(jù)，有了數(shù)據(jù)就掌握了主動權(quán)。

Many of these services support Amazon’s own expansion and that of other companies. The obvious example is AWS, which powers Amazon’s operations as well as those of other firms. But Amazon also rents warehouse space to other sellers. It is building a $1.5bn air-freight hub in Kentucky. It is testing technology in stores to let consumers skip the cash register altogether, and experimenting with drone deliveries to the home. Such tools could presumably serve other customers, too. Some think that Amazon could become a new kind of utility: one that provides the infrastructure of commerce, from computing power to payments to logistics.

這段列舉了亞馬遜涉足的業(yè)務(wù)范圍，為了更直觀，我們可以用思維導圖的方式呈現(xiàn)：

到目前為止，第二個問題——亞馬遜取得成功的兩大戰(zhàn)略，我們已經(jīng)解決了。我們再以思維導圖的方式，對內(nèi)容做一次回顧：

最后我們再來解決第三個問題：監(jiān)管對亞馬遜實現(xiàn)其帝國野心所帶來的影響。

當一家公司成長到足夠大的時候，必然面臨同監(jiān)管部門的沖突。但就目前來說，監(jiān)管部門不大可能對亞馬遜采取反壟斷行動。其原因有二：一為亞馬遜不是美國最大的零售商；二為亞馬遜不符合美國反壟斷法執(zhí)行機構(gòu)的考量標準。

And here lies the real problem with the expectations surrounding Amazon. If it gets anywhere close to fulfilling them, it will attract the attention of regulators. For now, Amazon is unlikely to trigger antitrust action. It is not yet the biggest retailer in America, its most mature market. America’s antitrust enforcers look mainly at a firm’s effect on consumers and pricing. Seen through this lens, Amazon appears pristine(extremely fresh or clean). Consumers applaud it; it is the most well-regarded company in America, according to a Harris poll. (AWS is a boon to startups, too.)

第一句話開門見山：亞馬遜真正面臨的問題如下。這句話的結(jié)構(gòu)特別值得我們學習。我們想一想，當我們表達“問題”的時候，我們最先想到的句式是：The problem is...，高級一點的會想到：The problem lies in...，而文中則用了倒裝：Here lies the problem with...，這是值得我們借鑒的地方。

Seen through this lens 相當于 from this perspective，因為本句的主語是 'Amazon'，所以用被動 'seen'.

但隨著亞馬遜的發(fā)展，將會有越來越多的人擔憂它的影響力，公司最終也會受到反壟斷調(diào)查。但與此同時，監(jiān)管部門對科技的看法也發(fā)生了改變：數(shù)字平臺過去享有更多的法律責任豁免，而如今，這種豁免逐漸削弱。

But as it grows, so will concerns about its power. Even on standard antitrust grounds, that may pose a problem: if it makes as much money as investors hope, a rough calculation suggests its earnings could be worth the equivalent of 25% of the combined profits of listed Western retail and media firms. But regulators are also changing the way they think about technology. In Europe, Google stands accused of using its clout as a search engine to extend its power to adjacent businesses. The comparative immunity from legal liability of digital platforms—for the posting of inflammatory(likely to cause anger or hate) content on Facebook, say, or the vetting of drivers on Uber—is being chipped away.

本段從兩個角度分析了亞馬遜未來可能面臨反壟斷調(diào)查的原因：一、隨著企業(yè)的增長，影響力在擴大，人們也會越來越擔憂。隨后以收益為例進行論證；二、監(jiān)管部門改變對科技的態(tài)度。隨后以谷歌以及臉書、優(yōu)步等數(shù)字平臺等兩個例子加以說明。

首句又是一個倒裝，可以和前面的 If Amazon’s approach to time-frames is unusual, so too is the sheer breadth of its activities. 結(jié)合學習。

亞馬遜的商業(yè)模式最終也會促使監(jiān)管機構(gòu)改變思路，股東相信亞馬遜的潛力是沒有錯的，但它的成功會使自己陷入同政府的沖突中。

Amazon’s business model will also encourage regulators to think differently. Investors value Amazon’s growth over profits; that makes predatory pricing more tempting. In future, firms could increasingly depend on tools provided by their biggest rival. If Amazon does become a utility for commerce, the calls will grow for it to be regulated as one. Shareholders are right to believe in Amazon’s potential. But success will bring it into conflict with an even stronger beast: government.

英文中有很多類似 'the call will grow' 這樣的表達，翻譯過來應(yīng)翻譯成“越來越多的人呼吁”，要把“人”體現(xiàn)出來，而英文不必，這是中英思維的一個差異。

聯(lián)合國之前有一份材料，關(guān)于潘基文在世界環(huán)境日的致辭，其中有一句話是這樣說的：

• Despite growing global awareness of the dangers of environmental deterioration, which includes climate change, bio-diversity loss and desertification, the progress since the World Environment Summit has been slow.

  盡管全球已有越來越多的人意識到環(huán)境惡化所帶來的危害，包括氣候變化、生物多樣性的喪失和土地荒漠化，世界環(huán)境首腦峰會以來的進展依然緩慢。

同期《經(jīng)濟學人》的 Leaders 版塊中有一篇文章叫 The future of the European Union: How to save Europe，昨天，也就是3月25日，是歐盟成立的60大壽，這一篇文章分析了 歐盟的歷史、歐盟面臨的內(nèi)外威脅、傳統(tǒng)解決方案的弊端以及《經(jīng)濟學人》提出的解決方案 這四塊內(nèi)容。其中在分析歐盟面臨的內(nèi)部威脅時，有這么一句話：

• Prolonged economic pain has contributed to a plunge in support for the EU.

經(jīng)濟的長期疲軟導致國家/人們對歐盟的支持率大幅下降。

這也是一個很好的例子。