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當(dāng)下的不確定性 On average, the safest bet you can make about the future in any particular direction is that it won't be much different than now. Most things change slowly. Some change comes fast, but is not important -- like fashion. A lot of important change comes slowly, so you can see where it is headed -- like demographics. There is a small set of fast moving important change that is hard to predict -- the known unknowns. 平均而言，你能夠?yàn)槲磥?lái)作做的賭注，就所有可供選擇的方案里面，最安全的是那些在未來(lái)跟現(xiàn)在相差不大的東西。很多東西改變得很慢，一些東西改變得很快，但并不重要 - 就比如時(shí)尚。很多重要的改變是慢慢到來(lái)的，因此你可以看到變化趨勢(shì) -- 比如人口統(tǒng)計(jì)。有一小部分重要而快速的改變是難以預(yù)料到的 -- 已知的未知數(shù)。 In the forecasting business, "known unknowns" are called uncertainties. Since you don't know which way things will go, you need to imagine more than one scenario flowing from that unknown. At the pivot of every scenario lies a driving uncertainty. If the uncertainty leans one way, the future plays out drastically different than if it leans the other ways. 在預(yù)測(cè)行業(yè)里面，“已知的未知數(shù)”被稱作不確定性。因?yàn)槟悴恢朗虑閷?huì)往那個(gè)方向發(fā)展，這樣，你就需要從未知的變化情況里面想得更多。所有情況的紐帶在于發(fā)展的不確定性。不確定性趨向某一方面，和不確定性趨向其它方面，未來(lái)所成呈現(xiàn)的將會(huì)是截然不同的樣子。 In the 1950s the outcome of WII was a huge uncertainty. The entire world would unroll differently depending on who won. Usually past uncertainties seem obvious in retrospect. But at the time, they are a puzzle. Fifty years ago there were uncertainties about the civil rights movement in the US, about the future of LSD, about the impact of polio vaccines, about the level of literacy, about whether China could feed itself, and so on. In each case, more than one destiny for the question was plausible. Segregation of races could have been enforced, LSD could have been legalized, polio vaccine might not have worked, and so on. And the world would have been different. 在20世紀(jì)50年代，二戰(zhàn)的結(jié)果是一個(gè)巨大的不確定性。整個(gè)世界被劃分得如何不同，取決于誰(shuí)能夠勝利。通常過(guò)往的不確定性在回想時(shí)看起來(lái)非常的明確。但是在當(dāng)時(shí)，他們是一個(gè)迷。50年前，關(guān)于美國(guó)的民權(quán)運(yùn)動(dòng)、迷幻劑的未來(lái)、脊髓灰質(zhì)炎疫苗的影響、識(shí)字的水平、中國(guó)能否養(yǎng)活他們自己等等都存在著不確定性。每件事情當(dāng)中，都有著不止一種似是而非的命運(yùn)。種族分離被強(qiáng)制執(zhí)行，迷幻藥已經(jīng)合法化，脊髓灰質(zhì)炎疫苗可能不起作用等等。世界已經(jīng)不一樣了。 Today we have new uncertainties. I made a quick list of current known unknowns in my own mind. These are questions with significant impact, yet with multiple, equally plausible outcomes. I have a lot of opinions and hunches about what might happen in the future, but the following are issues that I think are important, yet I don't have a guess about how they will resolve. I can see each going several different ways. 如今我們有了新的不確定性，關(guān)于當(dāng)下的已知未知數(shù)在我的腦海里列了一張快速名單。那些有重大意義的問(wèn)題，而且有的會(huì)很復(fù)雜，尤其是似是而非的結(jié)果。關(guān)于未來(lái)可能會(huì)發(fā)生的事我有很多的想法和預(yù)感，下以的主題是我認(rèn)為重要，而且我還猜不到它們會(huì)如何解決，我能看到每個(gè)問(wèn)題都正在向著幾種不同的方向發(fā)展。 What, if anything, will slow down China? Possible answers: internal revolution, population decline, environmental realities, absolutely nothing.
What information will people not share with each other? 人們將不會(huì)與彼此分享的信息是什么？ They share medical records, purchases, dreams, sex fantasies. What about their taxes? 人們共享醫(yī)療紀(jì)錄、采購(gòu)、夢(mèng)想和性幻想，那么他們的稅呢？ How many devices do we want to carry? 我們需要攜帶多少設(shè)備？ Ten, two, one, or none? 10個(gè)，2個(gè)，1個(gè)還是什么都不用？ What will modernize Islam? 什么將會(huì)使伊斯蘭教現(xiàn)代化？ Will Islam's "Reformation" be political, theological, violent, or glacial? 伊斯蘭教的“改革”將會(huì)是政治、神學(xué)、暴力還是冷漠？ How much bandwidth is enough? 多少兆的寬帶是足夠的？ We have enough pixels in a camera, enough hi-fi in our music, how many gigs/s before we no long think about it? 我們的相機(jī)里面已經(jīng)有了足夠的像素，音樂(lè)的質(zhì)量也足夠的好，要看多少場(chǎng)音樂(lè)會(huì)才能讓我們不再去想看呢？ Will we trust governments or corporations more? 我們是否會(huì)更信任政府和企業(yè)呢？ Who do we want to run our education, libraries, police, press, courts, liscences, and communication networks? 我們想要誰(shuí)來(lái)管理我們的教育、圖書(shū)館、警察、媒體、法院、認(rèn)可證和通信網(wǎng)絡(luò)呢？ What is the "natural" price of a book, movie, or song? 什么是書(shū)本、電影和音樂(lè)本該有的價(jià)格？ Once distribution and production costs fall or disappear, what will we charge for creations? 一旦分配和生產(chǎn)成本降低或是消失，我們靠什么來(lái)收取創(chuàng)作的 Will (or where will) the future ever become cool again? 未來(lái)將會(huì)再次變得寒冷嗎？會(huì)是哪些地方呢？ Optimism is a necessary ingredient for innovation. What will renew it? 樂(lè)觀對(duì)于創(chuàng)新而言是一種必要的因素，將會(huì)是什么來(lái)恢復(fù)樂(lè)觀呢？ How bad are the harmful effects of surfing the net? 上網(wǎng)會(huì)帶來(lái)多么糟糕的影響呢？ Are the bad effects of short attention temporary, inconvinient, or fatal? 這些壞的影響是暫時(shí)未引起注意，是帶來(lái)不便，還是致命的呢？ Is nuclear fusion (synthetic solar) economically possible? 核聚變（人造太陽(yáng)）在經(jīng)濟(jì)上是不可行的嗎？ Making energy like the sun does might too cheap to meter or as uneconomical as a perpetual motion machine. 像太陽(yáng)一樣產(chǎn)生能量可能會(huì)太便宜以至于無(wú)法計(jì)費(fèi)，或是像永動(dòng)機(jī)一樣太不合算。 When will Moore's Law stop? 摩爾定律會(huì)何時(shí)失效？ At least 90% of our progress today hinges on cheaper, faster computation every year. Stop one, stop the other. 目前，我們每年至少有90%的項(xiàng)目都取決于便宜快速的預(yù)算。把這些所的都停 There are other common questions that I have strong hunches about (climate change, national ID, the Singularity, the Tea Party, peak oil, Dec 12, 2012) so I don't consider them uncertainties, although others might. 對(duì)于其它常見(jiàn)的問(wèn)題我也有著強(qiáng)烈的預(yù)感，包括：氣候變化、民眾的身份證、奇點(diǎn)、茶會(huì)、石油峰值。我不認(rèn)為他們存在不確定性，盡管其它的人或許會(huì)認(rèn)為他們有。 As I think of more, I'll add them. 我想得越多，這種不確定性就越多 Posted on April 7, 2011 at 11:51 PM | 8 Comments |
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