這篇演講邏輯清晰，講者在演講中還配有圖表文字，抒發(fā)了自己的真知灼見，在進(jìn)行了很多鋪墊之后從不同角度總結(jié)了真正驅(qū)動人的思想和行為的三個原則，見解獨(dú)到且深刻。非常值得聆聽！

↓↓以下為演講全文（中英對照）：

So, we all have some behavior that we would like to change about ourselves. And we certainly all want to help someone else change their behavior in a positive way. So, maybe it’s your kid, your spouse, your colleague.

我們每個人都有一些自己想要改變的行為模式。我們也當(dāng)然都想以一種積極的態(tài)度幫助某些人改變他們的行為，可能是你的孩子，你的配偶，或你的同事。

So I want to share some new research with you that I think reveals something really important about what gets people to change their behavior.

所以，我想和大家分享一些新的研究。我認(rèn)為這些研究揭示了一些真正重要的東西，是什么能讓人們改變他們的行為。

But before I do that, let’s zoom in on one strategy that I think you probably use a lot. So, let’s say you’re trying to stop yourself from snacking. What do you tell yourself? Well, most people, in a monologue, will say, “Beware. You’ll be fat.”

但在此之前，讓我們來看一個我認(rèn)為你們可能使用過度了的策略。所以，假設(shè)你向阻止自己吃零食。你會對自己說什么？嗯，大多數(shù)人會在心里對自己說，“注意，你會變胖的”。

And if this was your kid, you would probably tell him that smoking kills and, by the way, he’s in big, big trouble.

如果你的孩子抽煙，你可能會告訴他吸煙會害死他。順便再說一句，他有大麻煩了。

So, what we’re trying to do here is we’re trying to scare ourselves and others into changing their behavior. And it’s not just us. Warnings and threats are really common in health campaigns, in policy.

所以，我們所做的是，我們在試圖通過嚇唬自己和其他人，以改變他們的行為。不只是我們。警告和威脅在健康項目和政治宣傳中確實很常見。

It’s because we all share this deep-rooted belief that if you threaten people, if fear is induced, it will get them to act. And it seems like a really reasonable assumption, except for the fact that the science shows that warnings have very limited impact on behavior.

這是因為我們都有一個根深蒂固的信念：只要你威脅人們，讓他們感到恐懼，他們就會采取行動。這似乎是一個非常合理的假設(shè)，只不過科學(xué)已經(jīng)表明，威脅對行為的影響非常有限。

So, graphic images on cigarette packets, for example, do not deter smokers from smoking, and one study found that, after looking at those images, quitting actually became a lower priority for smokers. So, I'm not saying that warnings and threats never work, but what I'm saying is, on average, they seem to have a very limited impact.

例如，煙盒上的圖像，并不能阻止吸煙者吸煙。一項研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，在看了這些圖像后，戒煙實際上成了吸煙者更低的優(yōu)先級。所以，我并不是說警告和威脅永遠(yuǎn)不起作用。但我要說，平均來說，它們的影響似乎非常有限。

And so, the question is: why? Why are we resistant to warnings?

那么問題是：為什么？為什么我們會拒絕威脅？

Well, if you think about animals, when you induce fear in an animal, the most common response you will see is freezing or fleeing, fighting, not as much. And so, humans are the same. So if something scares us, we tend to shut down and we try to eliminate the negative feelings.

嗯，如果你想想動物，當(dāng)你給動物帶去恐懼時，你會看到的最常見的反應(yīng)是呆住或逃跑；而戰(zhàn)斗的情況并不是那么常見。其實，人類也是一樣的。如果有什么東西嚇到了我們，我們會傾向于逃避，試圖消除消極的感覺。

So, we might use rationalizations. For example, you might tell yourself:“My grandpa smoked. He lived to be 90.” So, I have really good genes and absolutely nothing to worry about. And this process can actually make you feel more resilient than you did before, which is why warnings sometimes have this boomrang effect.

所以，我們可能會嘗試?yán)硇灾髁x。例如，你可能會告訴自己：“我爺爺也抽煙啊，但他活到了90歲”。所以，我家基因特別好，絕對沒有什么可擔(dān)心的。所以這一過程實際上比你想象的更有彈性，也就解釋了為什么恐懼有時會導(dǎo)致回彈效應(yīng)。

In other times, we simply put our head in the ground. Take the stock market for example. Do you know when people pull their head out of the ground to look at their accounts--not to make a transaction, just to log in to check their account?

在其他時候，我們只是把頭埋進(jìn)地里（鴕鳥）。以股市為例。你知道嗎，當(dāng)人們把頭從地里抬起來，恐懼地查看他們的賬戶時，并不是為了進(jìn)行交易，只是為了登錄看看他們的賬戶嗎？

So, what you're seeing here, in black, is the S&P 500 over two years, and in gray, is the number of times that people logged in to their account just to check. And this is data from Karlsson, Loewenstein&Seppi, it's control[data] for all the obvious confounds.      

所以，你在這里看到的，黑色的是在兩年的時間里標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)，灰色的是人們只為了看看自己的賬戶而登錄查看的次數(shù)。這是來自Karlsson, Loewenstein&Seppi的數(shù)據(jù)。這是總體的明顯看起來很混亂的控制數(shù)據(jù)。

So, what do we see? When the market is high, people log in all the time, because positive information makes you feel good. So you seek it out. And when the market is low, people avoid logging in, because negative information makes us feel bad. So we try to avoid it altogether. And all this is true as long as bad information can reasonably be avoided.  

所以，我們看到了什么？當(dāng)市場很健康的時候，人們總是登錄，因為正向的信息會讓你感覺很好，所以你就會主動去查看它。當(dāng)市場低迷時，人們會避免登錄，因為負(fù)面信息會讓我們感覺不好。所以我們盡量避免。只要能合理地避免不良信息，所有這些都是真實的。

So, what you don't see here is what happened a few months later in the financial collapse of 2008 when the market went drastically down. And that was when people started logging in frantically, but it was too late.

所以，你在這里沒看到的是幾個月后發(fā)生的事情。在2008年的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中，當(dāng)市場急劇下跌的時候，人們才開始瘋狂地登錄，但是已經(jīng)太晚了。

So, you can think about it like this — it’s not just finance: In many different parts of our life, we have warning signs and bad behaviors now. And they could potentially lead to all these bad outcomes later, but not necessarily so, because there are different routs from your present to your future, right?

所以，你好好想想--不僅僅是金融方面：在我們生活中的許多不同方面，我們同時擁有了警示牌以及壞習(xí)慣。壞習(xí)慣可能會導(dǎo)致各種糟糕的結(jié)果，但也不一定會導(dǎo)致這些結(jié)果，因為從你的現(xiàn)在到未來還要經(jīng)歷不同的路徑，對吧？

It can go this way, it can go that way. And, as time passes, you gather more and more information about where the wind is blowing. And, at any point, you can intervene and you could potentially change the outcome, but that takes energy and you might tell yourself: “What’s the point about worrying about something that might happen? It might not happen.”

你有可能會這樣，也可能會那樣。而且，隨著時間的推移，你會收集到越來越多的市場信息。而且，在任何時候，你都可以干預(yù)，你也可能會改變結(jié)果，但是這需要精力。所以你可能會告訴自己：“擔(dān)心那些可能會發(fā)生的事情又有什么意義呢？也可能不會發(fā)生啊?！?/p>

Until we reach this point, at which time you do jump into action, but sometimes it’s a little bit too late.

在出問題之前，你確實會立即行動起來，但是有時候已經(jīng)稍稍有些晚了。

So, we wanted to know, in my lab, what type of information does leak into people. So, we conducted an experiment where we asked approximately 100 people to estimate the likelihood of 80 different negative events that might happen to them in the future.

所以，我們想通過實驗知道，什么樣的信息會真正深入人心。因此，我們進(jìn)行了一項實驗。我們讓大約100個人估計在未來可能發(fā)生在他們身上的80種不同負(fù)面事件的可能性。

So, for example, I might ask you: “What is the likelihood that you’ll suffer hearing loss in your future?” And let’s say you think it’s about 50%. Then, I give you the opinion of two different experts. So, expert A tells you: “You know, for someone like you, I think it’s only 40%.” So, they give you a rosier view of your future.

舉個例子，我可能會問你：“你將來聽力喪失的可能性有多大？”假設(shè)你認(rèn)為是50%。然后，我會給你兩個不同的專家的意見。專家A會告訴你：“你知道，像你這類人，我認(rèn)為概率只有40%。”這樣你對未來有了更美好的看法。

Expert B says: “You know, for someone like you, I actually think it’s about 60%. It’s worse.” So, they give you a bleaker view of your future.

而專家B說：“你知道，對你這樣的人來說，我覺得概率約60%，這很糟糕”。所以，他們讓你對你的未來有了更悲觀的看法。

What should you do? Well, you shouldn’t change your beliefs, right? Wrong. What we find is that people tend to change their beliefs towards a more desirable opinion. In other words, people listen to the positive information.

你該怎么辦？你不應(yīng)該改變你的想法，對吧？不對。我們所發(fā)現(xiàn)的是，人們更容易把他們的想法，轉(zhuǎn)換成一個使自己更樂觀的觀點(diǎn)。換句話說，人們樂意聽積極的信息。

Now, this study was conducted on college students, so you might say: “Well, college students are delusional, right? We all know that.” And surely, as we grow older, we grow wiser. So we said: “OK, let’s test that. Does this really generalize? Does it generalize to your kid, to your parent? Does it generalize to your spouse?”

因為這項研究是針對大學(xué)生進(jìn)行的，所以你可能會說：“嗯，那是因為大學(xué)生有妄想癥，對吧？我們都懂的?！钡拇_，隨著年齡的增長，我們會變得更聰明的。所以我們想：“好，讓我們來測試下，看它是否適用于你的孩子，你的父母？它是否適用于你的另一半呢？”

And so, we tested people from the age of 10 until the age of 80, and the answer was yes. In all these age groups, people take in information they want to hear — like someone telling you you’re more attractive than you thought — than information that they don’t want to hear.

因此，我們又測試了從10歲到80歲的人，而答案依然是肯定的。在所有這些年齡組中，人們都會更接受他們想要聽到的信息--比如有人告訴你，你比你想象的更有魅力--而更不愿接受他們不想聽到的信息。

And the ability to learn from good news remained quite stable throughout the life span, but the ability to learn from bad news, that changes as you age.

從好消息中學(xué)習(xí)的能力會在人的一生中保持穩(wěn)定，但從壞消息中學(xué)習(xí)的能力會隨著年齡的增長而變化。

So, what we found was that kids and teenagers were the worse at learning from bad news, and the ability became better and better as people aged. But then, around the age of 40, around midlife, it started deteriorating again.

因此，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)孩子和青少年從壞消息中學(xué)習(xí)的能力最差。而隨著年齡的增長，他們的能力會越來越強(qiáng)。但是，到了40歲左右，也就是中年，它又會開始惡化。

So, what this means is that the most vulnerable populations, kids and teenagers on the one hand, and the elderly on the other hand, they’re the least likely to accurately learn from warnings.

所以，這意味著，最脆弱的人群，一類是兒童和青少年，另一類則是老年人，他們最難因警告或威脅而改變自己的認(rèn)知。

But what you can see here is that it doesn’t matter what age you are. You can be 20, 30, 40, 50 or 60; everyone takes in information they want to hear more than information that they don’t.

但你會發(fā)現(xiàn)的是，你的年齡是多少并不重要。你可以是20歲、30歲、40歲、50歲或60歲；每個人只會接受他們想要聽到的信息，而不是他們不想聽到的信息。

And so, we end up with a view like this of ourselves. Our mistake as teachers, as mentors, as employers is that, instead of working with this positive image that people so effortfully maintain, we try and put a clear mirror in front of them.

因此，我們最終有了一個這樣的看法。作為老師，作為導(dǎo)師，作為雇主，我們所犯的錯誤是，我們沒有努力提供給人們他們想要努力維持的積極狀態(tài)，而是用力在他們面前放一面清晰的鏡子。

We tell them: “You know, the image is just going to get worse and worse and worse.” And it doesn’t work. It doesn’t work because the brain will frantically try to distort the image, using Photoshop and fancy lenses, until it gets the image it’s happy with.

我們告訴他們：“你知道，你的樣子只會變得越來越糟。”這并不起作用。它不管用，因為大腦會瘋狂地扭曲這個圖像，使用Photoshop和花哨的濾鏡，直到得到它自己滿意的圖像。

But what would happen if we went along with how our brain works and not against it? Take handwashing, for example. We all know that handwashing is the number one way to prevent the spread of disease, and this is really important in hospitals.

但如果我們歸順大腦的運(yùn)作方式，而不是反對它，會發(fā)生什么呢？以洗手為例。我們都知道洗手是預(yù)防疾病傳播的最佳途徑，在醫(yī)院也是非常重要的。

So, in a hospital here in the United States, a camera was installed to see how often medical staff do, in fact, sanitize their hands before and after entering a patient’s room.

因此，在美國的一家醫(yī)院里，安裝了一臺攝像頭，來觀察醫(yī)務(wù)人員在進(jìn)入病人病房前后對雙手進(jìn)行消毒的頻率。醫(yī)院人員知道已經(jīng)

Now, the medical staff knew a camera was installed. Nevertheless, only one in ten washed their hands before and after entering a patient’s room. But then, an intervention was introduced: an electronic board that told the medical staff how well they were doing. Every time you washed your hands, the numbers went up on the screen and it showed you your rate of your current shift and the rate of the weekly staff.

醫(yī)院人員知道已經(jīng)安裝了攝像頭。然而，只有十分之一的人在進(jìn)入病房之前和之后洗手。但隨后，一個干預(yù)措施被引入了：一個電子板，告訴醫(yī)務(wù)人員他們做得有多好。每次你洗手時，屏幕上的數(shù)字就會上升，它會顯示你當(dāng)前的洗手頻率以及每周工作人員的吸收頻率。

And what happened? Boom. Compliance raised to 90%, which is absolutely amazing. And the research staff were amazed as well, and they made sure to replicate it in another division in the hospital. Again, the same results.

然后發(fā)生了什么？砰。服從性提高到了90%，這絕對是令人驚訝的。研究人員也感到驚訝，他們也在醫(yī)院的另一個科室復(fù)制了它。同樣的結(jié)果。

So, why does this intervention work so well? It works well because, instead of using warnings about bad things that can happen in the future, like disease, it uses three principles that we know really drive your mind and your behavior.

那么，為什么這種干預(yù)效果如此之好呢？它的效果很好，因為它不是通過警告別人未來可能發(fā)生的壞事，比如疾病，而是使用我們知道的三個原則來真正地驅(qū)動你的思想和行為。

Let me explain. The first one is social incentives. In the hospital study, the medical staff could see what other people were doing. They can see the rates of the shift, the rate of the week. We’re social people, we really care what other people are doing, we want to do the same and we want to do it better.

讓我解釋一下。首先是社會激勵。在醫(yī)院的研究中，醫(yī)務(wù)人員可以看到其他人在做什么。他們可以看到每一組的洗手率，一周的洗手率。我們是社會性的人，我們真的很在乎別人在做什么，我們會想做同樣的事，而且想做得更好。

This is an image from a study that we conducted, led by PhD student Micah Edelson, and what it’s showing you is a signal in the emotional center of your brain when you hear about the opinion of others. And what we found was that this signal can predict how likely you are to conform at a later time, how likely you are to change your behavior.

這是我們在博士生Micah Edelson的帶領(lǐng)下進(jìn)行的一項研究中的一張圖片。它向你展示的是當(dāng)你聽到別人的意見時，大腦情感中心的一個信號。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，這個信號可以預(yù)測你一段時間過后服從的可能性。

So, the British government are using this principle to get people to pay taxes on time. In an old letter that they sent to people who “forgot” to pay taxes on time, they simply stressed how important it was pay taxes, and that didn’t help. Then, they added one sentence, and that sentence said: “Nine out of ten people in Britain pay their taxes on time.”

因此，英國政府正利用這一原則來督促人們按時納稅。在他們寄給那些“忘了”按時納稅的人的一封舊信中，他們只是強(qiáng)調(diào)了納稅的重要性，但這并沒有起到什么作用。然后，他們加了一句話，那句話寫到：“在英國，有90%的人會按時納稅?！?/p>

And that one sentence enhanced compliance within that group by 15%, and it’s thought to bring into the British government 56 billion pounds. So, highlighting what other people are doing is a really strong incentive.

這一改變使該群體的服從性提高了15%，人們認(rèn)為這一判決為英國政府帶來了56億英鎊的收入。因此，強(qiáng)調(diào)其他人都在做的事是一種很強(qiáng)的激勵。

The other principle is immediate rewards. So, every time the staff washed their hand, they could see the numbers go up on the board and it made them feel good.

另一個原則是即時獎勵。因此，每一次員工洗手，他們都能看到黑板上的數(shù)字上升，這讓他們感覺很好。

And knowing that in advance made them do something that they, otherwise, may not want to do. Now, this works because we value immediate rewards, rewards that we can get now, more than rewards that we can get in the future.

而且事先知道能讓他們做一些他們也許不想做的事情。這很有效，是因為我們重視眼前的獎勵，重視現(xiàn)在能得到的獎勵，而不是我們未來能得到的獎勵。

And people tend to think it’s because we don’t care about the future, but that’s completely wrong, we all care about our future, right? We want to be happy and healthy in the future, we want to be successful, but the future is so far away.

人們傾向于認(rèn)為這是因為我們不關(guān)心未來，但這是完全錯誤的，我們都關(guān)心我們的未來，不是嗎？我們想要在未來幸福健康，我們想要成功，但是未來是如此的遙遠(yuǎn)。

I mean, maybe you’ll behave badly now and you’ll be fine in the future, and maybe you’ll be altogether dead. So, the here-and-now you would rather have that tangible drink, that tangible T-bone, rather than something that’s uncertain in the future.

我的意思是，也許你現(xiàn)在會表現(xiàn)不好，但將來你會好起來，也許到時候你們都死光光了呢。所以，此時此刻，你寧愿喝能喝到的飲料，吃能吃到的T骨牛排，而不在乎那些在未來是不確定的東西。

If you think about it, it’s not altogether irrational, right? You’re choosing something sure now rather than something that is unsure in the future.

如果你仔細(xì)想想，這并不是完全不合理的，對吧？你會選擇有確定性的東西，而不是未來不確定的東西。

But what will happen if you reward people now for doing actions that are good for them in the future? Studies show that giving people immediate rewards make them more likely to quit smoking, more likely to start exercising, and this effect lasts for at least six months, because not smoking becomes associated with a reward, and exercising becomes associated with a reward, and it becomes a habit, it becomes a lifestyle.

但是，如果你因為他們未來的良好行為現(xiàn)在就獎勵他們，那會怎樣呢？研究表明，給予人們及時獎勵會使他們更有可能戒煙，更有可能開始鍛煉，這種效果至少能持續(xù)六個月，因為那時不吸煙就會成為一種獎勵，鍛煉就會成為一種獎勵，成為一種習(xí)慣，成為一種生活方式。

So, we can reward ourselves and others now for behaving in ways that are good for us in the future and that’s a way for us to bridge the temporal gap.

因此，我們可以為未來對自己有益的行為方式獎勵自己和他人，這也是我們縮短暫時差距的一種方式。

And the third principle is progress monitoring. So, the electronic board focused the medical staff attention on improving their performance.

第三個原則是進(jìn)度監(jiān)控。因此，電子告示板將醫(yī)療人員的注意力集中在了提高他們的工作表現(xiàn)上。

This is an image from a study that we conducted, that shows you brain activity suggestive of efficient coding of positive information about the future. And what we found was that the brain does a really good job at this, but it doesn’t do such a good job at processing negative information about the future.

這是我們進(jìn)行的研究中的一幅圖像，它顯示了你的大腦活動，暗示著對未來積極信息的有效編碼。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，大腦在處理積極信息這方面做得很好，但在處理有關(guān)未來的負(fù)面信息方面卻做得不是很好。

So, what does this mean? It means that, if you’re trying to get people’s attention, you might want to highlight the progress, not the decline. So, for example, if you take that kid with the cigarette, you might want to tell them: “You know, if you stop smoking, you’ll become better at sports.” Highlight the progress, not the decline.

這是什么意思？這意味著，如果你試圖引起人們的注意，你可能想要突出自己的進(jìn)步，而不是退步。所以，舉個例子，如果用那孩子抽煙的例子來看，你可能會想告訴他們：“你知道，如果你戒煙，你的運(yùn)動能力就會變得更好。”突出自己進(jìn)步，而不是退步。

Now, before I sum up, let me just share this small anecdote with you. A few weeks ago, I got home and I found this bill on my fridge. And I was really surprised because there’s never any bills on my fridge. So, I was wondering why my husband decided to put that on our fridge.

現(xiàn)在，在我總結(jié)之前，讓我和大家分享一個小軼事。幾周前，我回到家，在冰箱上發(fā)現(xiàn)了這張賬單。我真的很驚訝，因為我的冰箱上從來沒有過賬單。所以，我想知道為什么我丈夫決定把它放在冰箱上。

And so, looking at the bill, I could see that what this bill was trying to do is get me to be more efficient with my electricity use.

所以我看看賬單，我發(fā)現(xiàn)了這個變動的目的，就是讓我在用電方面更有效率。

And how was it doing it? Social incentives, immediate rewards and progress monitoring. Let me show you.

它是怎么做到的？社會激勵、即時獎勵和進(jìn)度監(jiān)控。讓我來給你們展示一下。

Here are the social incentives. In gray is the energy use on the average energy use of people in my neighborhood. And in blue is my energy use, and in green is the most efficient neighbor.

以下是社會激勵措施?；疑氖俏覀兩鐓^(qū)居民的能源平均使用率，藍(lán)色是我的能源消耗，綠色是能源利用率最高的鄰居。

And my reaction to this was — my immediate reaction was: “I’m a little bit better than average.” — a tiny bit, but still and my husband had exactly the same reaction — and “I want to get to the green bar.” And then, I got a smiley face.

我對此的反應(yīng)是--我當(dāng)時的反應(yīng)是：“我比平均水平高一點(diǎn)”--就一點(diǎn)，但仍然是高嘛...我丈夫也是同樣的反應(yīng)--“我想達(dá)到綠色的水平線?！比缓?，我得到了一個笑臉。

That was my immediate reward and it was telling me, “You’re doing good,” and it made me want to put this on my fridge. And although I have this one smiley face, I can see an opportunity there to get two smiley faces.

這就是我得到的即時回報，它告訴我，“你做得很好”，這就讓我想要把這個放在我的冰箱上。雖然我只有一個笑臉，但我能看到得到兩個笑臉的機(jī)會。

So, there’s an opportunity for progress and it’s showing me my progress throughout the year, how my energy use changes throughout the year.

所以，這是一個進(jìn)步的機(jī)會，它向我展示了一年中達(dá)到的進(jìn)步，以及我家的能量利用在一年中是如何變化的。

And the last thing this bill gave me: it gave me a sense of control. So, it gave me a sense of I was in control of my use of electricity.

這個賬單給我的最后一個提示是：它給我一種控制感。因此，它給了我在控制自己用電的感覺。

And that is a really important thing, if you try to get people to change their behavior, because the brain is constantly trying to seek ways to control its environment. It’s one of the principles of what the brain is actually doing.

這是一件非常重要的事情，因為你在試圖讓人們改變他們的行為，因為大腦一直在試圖尋找控制它周圍環(huán)境的方法。這就是大腦實際行為方式的原則之一。

And so, giving people a sense of control is a really important motivator. OK. So, what am I not saying? I’m not saying that we do not need to communicate risks, and I’m not saying that there’s one-solution-fits-all, but I am saying that, if we want to motivate change, we might want to rethink how we do it, because fear, the fear of losing your health, the fear of losing money, induces inaction, while the thrill of a gain induces action.

因此，給人們一種控制感是一個非常重要的鼓勵方式。好的，我還有什么沒說的？我不是說我們不需要交流風(fēng)險，也不是說有一套適合所有人的解決方案，但我想說的是，如果我們想要激勵人做出改變，我們可能需要重新思考我們是如何做的，因為對于恐懼、對不健康的恐懼、失去金錢的恐懼，會讓人不想作為，而成功的刺激會刺激人的行為。

And so, to change behavior in ourselves and in others, we may want to try these positive strategies rather than threats, which really capitalize on the human tendency to seek progress.

因此，為了改變我們自己和他人的行為，我們也許該試試這些積極的策略，而不是威脅，因為這種策略有效利用了人類追求上進(jìn)的本能。

Thank you.

謝謝。