![]() 《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望報(bào)告》是由國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)研究人員撰寫的經(jīng)濟(jì)概覽,著重分析世界宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)并對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),每年發(fā)布兩次。中國人民大學(xué)國際貨幣研究所(IMI)作為國際貨幣基金組織的長期穩(wěn)定合作伙伴,每年定期聯(lián)合發(fā)布該報(bào)告,共同致力于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)和貨幣金融領(lǐng)域的研究和探討。 2022年“IMF《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望報(bào)告》發(fā)布會(huì)”將于5月11日以Zoom視頻會(huì)議的形式線上舉行,本次會(huì)議由國際貨幣基金組織駐華代表處、中國人民大學(xué)國際貨幣研究所聯(lián)合主辦,中國國際金融學(xué)會(huì)、中國銀行研究院合辦。IMF駐華首席代表Steven Barnett、副代表李鑫,IMF研究部經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Davide Malacrino、歐洲部經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Ting Lan,中國人民大學(xué)原副校長、中國資本市場(chǎng)研究院院長吳曉求將出席會(huì)議并做主題演講。 The Launch of IMF World Economic Outlook will be held on May 11, 09:00am to 11:30am virtually via Zoom Cloud Meetings, jointly organized by IMF Resident Representative Office in China and International Monetary Institute (IMI) at Renmin University of China, co-organized by China International Finance Society and the Research Institute of Bank of China. Mr. Steven Barnett, Senior Resident Representative of IMF in China, Mr. Li Xin, Deputy Resident Representative of IMF in China, Mr. Davide Malacrino, Economist from IMF Research Department, Ms. Ting Lan, Economist from IMF European Department, and Prof. Wu Xiaoqiu, Dean of the Academy of China Capital Market will deliver keynote speeches on world and regional economic outlook. 此次會(huì)議參加名額有限,需要提前報(bào)名審核。此次會(huì)議對(duì)金桐全球英才計(jì)劃模擬IMF項(xiàng)目組全體成員開放特別通道,同學(xué)們可以集體聽會(huì)和參與問答環(huán)節(jié),對(duì)金桐全球英才計(jì)劃中非模擬IMF項(xiàng)目組的同學(xué)也開放少數(shù)名額 ,請(qǐng)大家關(guān)注班級(jí)群中發(fā)布的參會(huì)路徑,珍惜機(jī)會(huì)、認(rèn)真聽會(huì)、積極提問。 會(huì)議信息 ![]() 時(shí)間:2022年5月11日(周三) 09:00-11:30 形式:Zoom視頻會(huì)議 語言:中英文,配有同傳 主辦:國際貨幣基金組織駐華代表處,中國人民大學(xué)國際貨幣研究所(IMI) 合辦:中國國際金融學(xué)會(huì),中國銀行研究院 主持:張之驤 中國人民銀行國際司原司長、中國駐IMF原執(zhí)行董事 ![]() Basic information ![]() Time: 09:00am-11:30am Wednesday, May 11, 2022 Form: Virtual via Zoom Language: Chinese/English (with simultaneous translation) Organized by: IMF Resident Representative Office in China,International Monetary Institute (IMI), Renmin University of China Co-organized by: China International Finance Society ,Research Institute of Bank of China Chaired by: Mr. Zhang Zhixiang, Former Director General of International Department, People’s Bank of China, and Former IMF Executive Director for China ![]() 會(huì)議議程 ![]() 09:00—09:10 開場(chǎng)致辭 莊毓敏 中國人民大學(xué)財(cái)政金融學(xué)院院長 09:10—09:40 主題演講I Steven Barnett IMF駐華首席代表 嘉賓研討 魏本華 國家外匯管理局原副局長、中國駐IMF原執(zhí)行董事 09:40—10:10 主題演講II 李 鑫 IMF駐華副代表 嘉賓研討 陳衛(wèi)東 中國銀行研究院院長 10:10—10:40 主題演講III Davide Malacrino IMF研究部經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家 Ting Lan IMF歐洲部經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家 嘉賓研討 趙錫軍 中國人民大學(xué)中國資本市場(chǎng)研究院聯(lián)席院長 10:40—11:10 主題演講IV 吳曉求 中國人民大學(xué)原副校長、中國資本市場(chǎng)研究院院長 嘉賓研討 瞿 強(qiáng) 中國人民大學(xué)財(cái)政金融學(xué)院教授 11:10—11:30 Q&A ![]() Agenda ![]() 09:00—09:10 Opening Address Prof. Zhuang Yumin, Dean, School of Finance, Renmin University of China 09:10—09:40 Presentation I Mr. Steven Barnett, Senior Resident Representative of IMF in China Discussant Mr. Wei Benhua, Former Deputy Administrator, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and Former IMF Executive Director for China 09:40—10:10 Presentation II Mr. Li Xin, Deputy Resident Representative of IMF in China Discussant Mr. Chen Weidong, Director, Research Institute of Bank of China 10:10—10:40 Presentation III Mr. Davide Malacrino, Economist, Research Department of IMF Ms. Ting Lan, Economist, European Department of IMF Discussant Prof. Zhao Xijun, Co-Dean, Academy of China Capital Market, Renmin University 10:40—11:10 Presentation IV Prof. Wu Xiaoqiu, Dean, Academy of China Capital Market, Former Vice President of Renmin University of China Discussant Prof. Qu Qiang, Professor, School of Finance, Renmin University of China 11:10—11:30 Q&A ![]() 主講嘉賓簡介 Bios of speakers Steven Barnett IMF駐華首席代表 Barnett先生現(xiàn)任國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)駐華首席代表,此前他擔(dān)任IMF副總裁顧問。他職業(yè)生涯的大部分時(shí)間都在研究亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì),曾任IMF亞太部中國處處長,IMF亞太區(qū)域辦公室(東京)助理主任,IMF駐華副代表和駐泰國代表。1997年加入IMF之前,他在馬里蘭大學(xué)獲得經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士學(xué)位。他擁有斯坦福大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)學(xué)士學(xué)位,斯坦福大學(xué)俄羅斯與東歐研究碩士學(xué)位。 Mr. Barnett recently became the International Monetary Fund’s Senior Resident Representative for China. Prior to that, he worked as an Advisor to the Deputy Managing Director. For much of his career, however, he covered Asia. His positions included Chief of the China Division in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, Assistant Director at the IMF Office for Asia and the Pacific in Tokyo, Resident Representative to China, and Resident Representative to Thailand. Prior to joining the IMF in 1997, he earned his PhD in economics from the University of Maryland. He has a Bachelor's degree in economics from Stanford University as well as a Master's degree in Russian and East European Studies, also from Stanford. 李鑫 IMF駐華副代表 李鑫現(xiàn)任國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)駐華副代表。此前,他在IMF總部亞太局日本處和馬來西亞處擔(dān)任經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家,其工作專注于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)、分析一國的內(nèi)部和外部失衡、以及宏觀結(jié)構(gòu)性問題。同時(shí),他還負(fù)責(zé)了非常規(guī)貨幣及財(cái)政政策、公司儲(chǔ)蓄率、勞動(dòng)力移民和非正規(guī)經(jīng)濟(jì)等多個(gè)研究項(xiàng)目。加入亞太部之前,他曾在IMF的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理辦公室擔(dān)任經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家,負(fù)責(zé)建立風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理工具并監(jiān)控IMF核心業(yè)務(wù)所面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。李鑫獲北京大學(xué)物理學(xué)學(xué)士學(xué)位和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)學(xué)士雙學(xué)位,以及美國萊斯大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士學(xué)位。 Mr. Xin Li is the IMF Deputy Resident Representative for China. Previously, he was a desk economist on Japan and Malaysia in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department based in Washington D.C., where he focused on macroeconomic forecasting, internal and external imbalance, and macro-structural issues while conducting research on unconventional monetary and fiscal policies, corporate saving, migrant labor, and informal economy. Prior to that, he worked as an economist in the IMF’s Office of Risk Management, building risk management tools and monitoring core risks faced by the IMF. He earned his Ph.D. in economics from Rice University; he also holds bachelor’s degrees in physics and economics (double major) from Peking University. Davide Malacrino IMF研究部經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家 Davide Malacrino 是國際貨幣基金組織研究部經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家,從事結(jié)構(gòu)改革和多邊監(jiān)督等問題的研究。他曾在IMF歐洲部負(fù)責(zé)歐元區(qū)和冰島的監(jiān)管研究工作。他曾多次發(fā)表勞動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和家庭金融方面的研究論文,主要研究領(lǐng)域包括收入動(dòng)態(tài)、收入和財(cái)富不平等、企業(yè)家精神。他在斯坦福大學(xué)獲得經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士學(xué)位。 Davide Malacrino is an Economist in the Research Department of the IMF, where he has worked on structural reforms and multilateral surveillance issues. Previously, he was in the European Department where he has done surveillance work for the euro area and for Iceland. His research in labor economics and household finance is published in academic journals and focuses on earnings dynamics, income and wealth inequality, and entrepreneurship. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Stanford University. Ting Lan IMF歐洲部經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家 Ting Lan 是國際貨幣基金組織歐洲部經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家,負(fù)責(zé)歐元區(qū)的區(qū)域研究和德國的監(jiān)管研究工作。她曾在IMF統(tǒng)計(jì)部從事數(shù)據(jù)監(jiān)控工作。她的研究方向包括宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和國際貿(mào)易,重點(diǎn)研究貿(mào)易和增長、創(chuàng)新和生產(chǎn)率以及經(jīng)濟(jì)地理。她在密歇根大學(xué)獲得經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士學(xué)位。 Ting Lan is an Economist in the European Department of the IMF, where she conducts regional studies for the euro area and surveillance work for Germany. Previously, she was in the Statistics Department and worked on data surveillance. Her research interests lie at the intersection of macroeconomics and international trade and focus on trade and growth, innovation and productivity, and economic geography. She holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Michigan. 吳曉求 中國人民大學(xué)原副校長 中國資本市場(chǎng)研究院院長 吳曉求,現(xiàn)任中國資本市場(chǎng)研究院院長,中國人民大學(xué)原副校長。主要社會(huì)學(xué)術(shù)職務(wù):全國金融專業(yè)學(xué)位研究生教育指導(dǎo)委員會(huì)第一副主任委員、全國金融學(xué)教學(xué)指導(dǎo)委員會(huì)(本科)副主任、國務(wù)院學(xué)位委員會(huì)應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)科評(píng)議組成員、中國教育發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略學(xué)會(huì)高等教育專業(yè)委員會(huì)理事長、北京市學(xué)位委員會(huì)委員、中國金融學(xué)會(huì)常務(wù)理事。吳曉求教授在宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、金融改革和資本市場(chǎng)等領(lǐng)域有深入、獨(dú)到研究。吳曉求教授是我國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)界在資本市場(chǎng)研究領(lǐng)域有重要影響力的專家之一,是我國證券教學(xué)、科研、人才培養(yǎng)和資本市場(chǎng)理論研究的重要開拓者。 Prof. Wu Xiao is the Dean of Academy of China Capital Market and Former Vice President of Renmin University. Other positions he has held include First Vice Chairman of National Steering Committee for Graduate Education in Finance, member of Assessment Group (Applied Economics) of Degree Committee under the State Council, member of Assessment Panel (Disciplines of Administration) of National Fund for Social Sciences, member of Municipal Degree Committee of Beijing, member of the ninth Issuance Examination Committee of China Securities Regulation Commission, Executive Director of China Finance Society, and Director of China Center for International Economic Exchanges. Prof. Wu Xiaoqiu is one of the most influential professors in the study of capital market in China. 背景介紹 Background ![]() 2022年4月《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望報(bào)告》 地緣政治沖擊下的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長前景 ![]() 俄烏戰(zhàn)爭引發(fā)了一場(chǎng)代價(jià)高昂的人道主義危機(jī),需要得到和平解決。同時(shí),這場(chǎng)沖突造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失將導(dǎo)致2022年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速顯著放緩并推升通脹。燃料和糧食價(jià)格快速上漲,低收入國家的弱勢(shì)群體受到的打擊最大。 全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速預(yù)計(jì)將從2021年6.1%的估計(jì)值下降至2022年和2023年的3.6%。2022年和2023年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速預(yù)測(cè)值分別較1月預(yù)測(cè)值下調(diào)了0.8和0.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。 2023年之后,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速預(yù)計(jì)將放緩,并在中期回落至3.3%左右。由于俄烏戰(zhàn)爭導(dǎo)致大宗商品價(jià)格上漲、價(jià)格壓力不斷擴(kuò)大,2022年,發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的通脹率預(yù)計(jì)為5.7%,新興市場(chǎng)和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體的通脹率預(yù)計(jì)為8.7%,二者較1月的預(yù)測(cè)值分別高出1.8和2.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。各方應(yīng)通過多邊努力應(yīng)對(duì)人道主義危機(jī),防止經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步割裂,維持全球流動(dòng)性,管理債務(wù)危機(jī),應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化,并結(jié)束新冠疫情——這些工作依然至關(guān)重要。 ![]() IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2022. War sets back the global recovery ![]() The war in Ukraine has triggered a costly humanitarian crisis that demands a peaceful resolution. At the same time, economic damage from the conflict will contribute to a significant slowdown in global growth in 2022 and add to inflation. Fuel and food prices have increased rapidly, hitting vulnerable populations in low-income countries hardest. Global growth is projected to slow from an estimated 6.1 percent in 2021 to 3.6 percent in 2022 and 2023. This is 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points lower for 2022 and 2023 than projected in January. Beyond 2023, global growth is forecast to decline to about 3.3 percent over the medium term. War-induced commodity price increases and broadening price pressures have led to 2022 inflation projections of 5.7 percent in advanced economies and 8.7 percent in emerging market and developing economies—1.8 and 2.8 percentage points higher than projected last January. Multilateral efforts to respond to the humanitarian crisis, prevent further economic fragmentation, maintain global liquidity, manage debt distress, tackle climate change, and end the pandemic are essential. ![]() |
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