Abstract

摘要

This paper uses a standard New Keynesian model to analyze the effects and implementation of various monetary policy frameworks in the presence of a low natural rate of interest and a lower bound on interest rates. Under a standard inflation-targeting approach, inflation expectations will be anchored at a level below the inflation target, which in turn exacerbates the deleterious effects of the lower bound on the economy. Two key themes emerge from our analysis. First, the central bank can eliminate this problem of a downward bias in inflation expectations by following an average-inflation targeting framework that aims for above-target inflation during periods when policy is unconstrained. Second, dynamic strategies that raise inflation expectations by keeping interest rates “l(fā)ower for longer” after periods of low inflation can both anchor expectations at the target level and further reduce the effects of the lower bound on the economy.

本文采用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的新凱恩斯模型，分析了在自然利率較低和利率下限存在的情況下，各種貨幣政策框架的效果和實(shí)施情況。按照標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的通脹目標(biāo)制，通脹預(yù)期將被錨定在低于通脹目標(biāo)的水平，這反過來又加劇了下限對經(jīng)濟(jì)的有害影響。從我們的分析中出現(xiàn)了兩個(gè)關(guān)鍵主題。首先，央行可以通過遵循平均通脹目標(biāo)框架，消除通脹預(yù)期向下傾斜的問題。在政策不受約束的時(shí)期，平均通脹目標(biāo)框架的目標(biāo)是高于目標(biāo)的通脹。其次，通過在低通脹時(shí)期過后“更長時(shí)間保持低利率”來提高通脹預(yù)期的動態(tài)策略，既可以將預(yù)期固定在目標(biāo)水平，又可以進(jìn)一步降低下限對經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響。