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投機(jī)之王--杰西·利文摩爾星盤(pán)(謝卓新)

 願(yuàn)隨身 2018-01-23

名人資料:Jesse Livermore - The Wallstreet's boy plunger


這是一份2001年在國(guó)外網(wǎng)站收集的關(guān)于Jesse Livermore的介紹資料,有編輯整理,作為檔案留存。

Jesse Lauriston Livermore was one of the best-known traders of the 20th Century. Few could accumulate money, or lose money, as quickly as Livermore.

Known as the 'boy plunger' because of the manner in which he would take large stock or commodity positions, Livermore lived as he traded - full steam ahead. He was very popular with members of the opposite sex due to his good looks and flamboyant life style.


名人資料:Jesse <wbr>Livermore <wbr>- <wbr>The <wbr>Wallstreet's <wbr>boy <wbr>plunger






















Just Who Was Jesse Livermore?

Jesse Livermore was born in South Acton, Massachusetts, in 1877. The son of a farmer, he left school in his early teens, and traveled to Boston where he became a 'board boy' for Paine Webber. His position required him to update stock, bond and commodity prices on their large chalkboard.

As Livermore recorded the ever-changing prices, he noted that prices often moved in predictable patterns. He soon concluded that the markets could be beaten, and that large sums of money could be made.

At that time Livermore did not have sufficient money to trade in stocks himself, so he spent his lunch hours in bucket shops, where he could attempt to make money by predicting the direction of selected stocks and commodities. By the age of 15 he had made more than $1,000 - which would be a considerable sum in today's dollars.

Bucket shops were little more than gambling dens. After ignoring a warning to keep away from these establishments by his supervisor at Paine Webber, Livermore was sacked from his position.

The Boy Plunger was now a full-time trader. Such was his success that he was banned from entering the bucket shops in Boston. He then tried the mid-West and East Coasts, where he made some $50,000. He resorted to disguises and used false names in order to circumvent the bans. In his 20s, Jesse Livermore moved to New York.

In New York Livermore commenced his career as one of the greatest stock traders of all time. In 1906 he received a tip to short Union Pacific, and did so in a big way. The stock began to rise, and Livermore was in trouble. The San Francisco earthquake caused Union Pacific stock to plummet, leaving Livermore with a $250,000 profit. It also left him with a clear understanding of the dangers of blindly following tips.

In 1907, he gained a reputation as a 'bear raider', trading the short side of the market on a massive scale. It is believed that the powerful J.P. Morgan sent go-betweens to Livermore to ask him to scale down his activities.

W.D. Gann, in 45 Years in Wall Street (page 117) described Livermore as "one of the most spectacular traders of his day". Gann stated that Livermore was an honourable man who "believed in paying debts even after he had been relieved through the courts of bankruptcy".

In fact, Livermore and many other traders and investors, including Gann himself, once lost their money when the brokerage firm Murray Mitchell and Company failed in 1913. In Gann's words "In 1917 when Livermore came back and made a fortune, he not only paid back my proportionate part of money which I lost through the Mitchell failure, but paid everyone else". Gann added, "This was an honourable thing to do, and because of Livermore's honor and honesty, in 1934 when he was broke, I backed him and got other people to raise money and back him. Livermore came back again and made money".

Gann's one criticism of Livermore was that Livermore had only studied how to make money - not how to keep money. In Gann's words "He had the greed and the drive for power, and when he got a large amount of money, he could not trade conservatively. He tried to make the market go his way instead of waiting until the market was ready to follow the natural trend".

Livermore's success gave him a lifestyle that many could only dream about. The tall, thin blonde speculator bought a 200-foot yacht, the Anita. He dated famous women, including actress Lillian Russell. His trading exploits soon became well known, and people would often comment that someone was "as rich as Jesse Livermore".

During World War I, Livermore anticipated that coffee would have a substantial rise in price, and established huge long positions. His profits amounted to millions of dollars, however the coffee contract was voided. The government believed that he was profiteering at wartime. This bankrupted Livermore for the third time.

An aggressive trader, Livermore made, and subsequently lost, four million dollar fortunes. Much of the money was made using tactics prior to them being declared illegal by the Securities and Exchange Commission in the 1930s. The new regulations either prevented, or limited, tactics such as:

  • using inside information;
  • concealing his market positions;
  • cornering stocks; and / or
  • arranging for misleading, or incorrect, information to be published.

Livermore became well known for his tactic of waiting until a stock he had bought had risen to the point where he had made substantial paper profits, and then 'confiding' in a journalist from the New York Times, or other influential newspapers, that the stock was a great buy. Livermore would then unload his massive position, selling into the buying frenzy created by the journalist's article.

At his peak, he owned huge estates in several countries, Rolls Royce cars, and yachts, and was famous for his lavish parties.

He also maintained a secret suite of offices in Fifth Avenue. It was in these offices that Livermore ran a full-scale brokerage operation, with numerous telephone lines and private telegraph lines. The office featured a full size quote board, updated by his clerks. He also employed a team of research staff. The sole purpose of this office was to facilitate his own trading and investment activities.

In 1933, Livermore was suffering from depression. After a 26-hour drinking binge, he fell into a police station and told the policemen that he had lost his memory.

Unable to accumulate money at the rate he previously did, Livermore decided to sell his trading secrets in the form of a book. How to Trade Stocks was published in 1940 in two versions - a leather-bound edition, and an 'any man's' edition. The book failed to capture the trading public's hearts and minds.

Later that year, Jesse Livermore consumed two drinks in the Sherry-Netherland Hotel in Manhattan. He wrote an eight-page letter to his third wife, saying to her "my life has been a failure".

The man who had affectionately become known as the Boy Plunger, the Great Bear, and the Cotton King, then walked into the hotel's hat-check room, sat in a chair, and shot himself in the head. So ended the life of someone who was arguably the greatest trader of all time. Jesse Livermore, trader extraordinaire, the man who had made millions, left an estate of less than $10,000.

The New York Times had Jesse Livermore's epitaph as its editorial:

What good he did, what harm he did, what his life meant to himself and to others - such questions are for the novelist… His passion drove him on… He lived in a time when the speculating he did came to seem like that of boys pinching pennies… He left no clouds of glory behind him, nor any miasma of human misery that he had created… The 'Street' in which he operated is not what it used to be. His death punctuated the end of an era.

Livermore's Legacy

Jesse Livermore died more than 60 years ago. He left the world of trading three things:

How to Trade In Stocks : How to Trade In Stocks was copyrighted in 1940 - the year Livermore died. It is believed that he wrote the book in a desperate attempt to raise capital. The book talks about the rationale of Livermore's decision-making process while trading.

Following are some quotations from How to Trade in Stocks:

The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor. (Page 15)

On doing your own work and thinking for yourself:

… let me warn you that the fruits of your success will be in direct ratio to the honesty and sincerity of your own effort in keeping your own records, doing your own thinking, and reaching your own conclusions. (Page 16)

On the best trades:

Experience has proved to me that real money made in speculating has been in commitments in a stock or commodity showing a profit right from the start. (Page 19)

On taking losses:

Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss. (Page 21)

On holding and hoping:

If my stock does not act as I anticipated, I immediate determine that the time is not yet ripe - so I close out my commitment. (Page 22)

On 'buy and hold' investing:

Speculators in stock markets have lost money. But I believe that it is a safe statement that the money lost by speculators alone is small compared with the gigantic sums lost by so-called investors who have let their investments ride. (Page 25)

From my point of view, the investors are the big gamblers. They make a bet, stay with it, and if all goes wrong, they lose it all. (Page 25)

On history repeating, and learning from the past:

The price pattern reminds you that every movement of importance is but a repetition of similar price movements, that just as soon as you can familiarize yourself with the actions of the past, you will be able to anticipate and act correctly and profitably upon forthcoming movements. (Page 51)

On tips:

Beware of inside information… all inside information. (Page 58)

…and if there was any easy money lying around, no one would be forcing it in your pocket. (Page 58)

The chart tells the entire story:

The only reason an investor or speculator should ever want to have pointed out to him is the action of the market itself. Whenever the market does not act right or in the way it should - that is reason enough for you to change your opinion and change it immediately… Remember, there is always a reason for a stock acting the way it does. But also remember: the chances are that you will not become acquainted with that reason until some time in the future, when it is too late to act on it profitably. (Page 71)

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator : This trading and investment classic, supposedly written by Edwin Lefevre in 1923, is arguably the most popular book ever written about speculation.

Lefevre was a financial journalist, and the book was dedicated to Jesse Livermore. It is supposedly a novel about a fictional trader called Larry Livingston.

In reality, Livermore almost certainly wrote the book himself, with Lefevre being the editor. The book is a thinly disguised account of Livermore's life.

Despite the book being one of the most enjoyable books on trading ever written, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator contains market truths from cover to cover. A few examples include:

To learn that a man can make foolish plays for no reason whatever was a valuable lesson. [Pages 155 and 156]

In fact, I always made money when I was sure I was right before I began. What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game - that is, to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play. [Page 14]

The speculator's chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. [Page 129]

… after a while, I heard a lot of calamity howling and the old stagers said everybody - except themselves - had gone crazy. [Page 34]

… and the only thing to do when a man is wrong is to be right by ceasing to be wrong. [Page 103]

But in actual practice a man has to guard against many things, and most of all against himself. [Page 122]

No trading library should be without a copy of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. It is no wonder that many authors today regularly quote passages from this book.

Martin Zweig once stated that Reminiscences of a Stock Operator was "The best book I've read. I keep a supply for people who come to work for me".

Jack Schwager, author of Market Wizards and New Market Wizards says of the book:

In my interviews with over 30 of the best traders of our time, there were some questions that I raised in each conversation. One of these was: "Are there any books that you find particularly valuable and would recommend to aspiring traders?" By far, the most frequent response was 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator'.

Jesse Livermore's third legacy to the world was his life story. On the one hand he was an honourable man who paid debts that he was not legally required to pay. On the other hand, he was a big time trader who would use any legal tactic to enhance his chances of making money.

The one thing his supporters and his critics agree on is that he was a true market master.



名人資料:杰西·利文摩爾(Jesse Livermore)生平簡(jiǎn)介


Jesse Livermore生于1877年 7月26日逝于1940年11月27日,閃亮而富有魅力的一生,投機(jī)行業(yè)里無(wú)出其右的奇才。充滿(mǎn)了神秘的氣息,有華爾街大熊與獨(dú)狼之稱(chēng),他的一生是交易的經(jīng)典。

Jesse Lauriston Livermore在孩童時(shí)代他的快速理解力和遠(yuǎn)超常人的數(shù)學(xué)天賦就引人注目,13歲時(shí)父親對(duì)他說(shuō)上學(xué)對(duì)農(nóng)夫來(lái)說(shuō)是無(wú)用的,14歲時(shí)把他從學(xué)校帶走從事農(nóng)活,Jesse Lauriston Livermore遇到了打擊,他的母親私下里支持他,14歲那年他帶著口袋里僅有的5美元離開(kāi)了父母。他搬到了波士頓,在那找到了第一份工作,在當(dāng)?shù)豍aine Webber分公司當(dāng)Chalkboard Boy。他對(duì)自己記下的數(shù)據(jù)的意義很感興趣,在數(shù)據(jù)專(zhuān)欄里尋找樣本。一個(gè)月后,那是1892年他剛15歲,他用午休的時(shí)間在附近的"Bucket Shop" (一個(gè)股票交易場(chǎng)所)自己進(jìn)行投機(jī)交易。當(dāng)他的上司知道后,跟他談話(huà)威脅他如果不放棄的話(huà)炒他魷魚(yú)。Jesse Lauriston Livermore選擇了離開(kāi),他很高興,結(jié)束了時(shí)間很短的首個(gè)工作。盡管那是他當(dāng)時(shí)唯一可以逗留的地方,雖然離開(kāi)的時(shí)候,顯得不太體面。
 
后來(lái)他在當(dāng)?shù)谺ucket Shops賺錢(qián)維生。16歲時(shí)他賺了1000美元,對(duì)他這樣的年齡來(lái)說(shuō)是一筆不小的數(shù)額。他一個(gè)人工作,不對(duì)任何人說(shuō)他做什么,沒(méi)有搭檔,從不借錢(qián)。他很成功,被人們稱(chēng)為神奇男孩,投機(jī)男孩。后來(lái),他帶著2500美金(期間已經(jīng)賺了10000美金)開(kāi)始了華爾街的冒險(xiǎn),但是最終失敗了。他只能向Ed Hutton借了1000美金。再次在Bucket Shops他熟悉的領(lǐng)域?qū)ふ覚C(jī)會(huì)。1899年22歲時(shí)他帶著10000美金的起始資金再次開(kāi)始了華爾街的冒險(xiǎn)。1901年他從牛市中贏得了巨大的利潤(rùn),50000美金并開(kāi)始做空。這是他還必須學(xué)習(xí)的一課。盡管他判斷對(duì)了市場(chǎng)的方向,但糟糕的操作毀掉了他的計(jì)劃。他再次輸光了。他的夫人拒絕把首飾當(dāng)?shù)簦缓糜值紹ucket Shops尋找機(jī)會(huì)。當(dāng)他再次湊夠了足夠的資金,又回到了華爾街。他改良了系統(tǒng),特別研究失敗者的態(tài)度,因?yàn)樗幌朐俅纬蔀槭≌?。最終他成功了,1906年初29歲時(shí)他做空數(shù)千Union Pacific的股票。那年4月18日舊金山發(fā)生大地震,Union Pacific三天后向石頭般下落,他獲得了250000美金的利潤(rùn)。

1907秋30歲時(shí)他已經(jīng)有了1百萬(wàn)美元。他認(rèn)為自己看對(duì)了方向,在他獲利了結(jié)后去了歐洲旅行。直覺(jué)告訴他他僅僅是為了不在失去利潤(rùn)而了結(jié)沒(méi)有任何理由,回到紐約后再次大量做空。后來(lái)10月發(fā)生了真正的崩潰,24日他第一次賺到了1百萬(wàn)美元,僅一天之內(nèi),這天還沒(méi)過(guò)去,他相信自己的交易規(guī)則,在交易日結(jié)束前他又獲得了巨大的利潤(rùn)。他的保證金足夠多第二天又可以向市場(chǎng)投入給市場(chǎng)死亡之吻。如果他成功了,那將不是1百萬(wàn)而是1千萬(wàn)的利潤(rùn)甚至兩千萬(wàn),另一方面他將會(huì)不確定,是否交易市場(chǎng)還會(huì)再開(kāi)。朋友Warren Augustus Reed的拜訪軟化了他的決定,請(qǐng)求放棄做空,這個(gè)請(qǐng)求不是來(lái)自隨便什么人而是JP Morgan,在那時(shí)已是傳奇。Jesse Lauriston Livermore31歲時(shí)他的成就他的力量達(dá)到了暫時(shí)的高峰,他掌握著像morgan那樣的力量,至少在一天之內(nèi)。Jesse Lauriston Livermore同意了,不僅出于無(wú)私也是出于計(jì)算。他將沒(méi)有更多的股票可以做空,第二天開(kāi)始獲利了結(jié),然后他開(kāi)始瘋狂買(mǎi)進(jìn),引起了市場(chǎng)反彈,他買(mǎi)進(jìn)了其他100000股在交易日結(jié)束時(shí)獲得了3百萬(wàn)的利潤(rùn)。
 
好景不長(zhǎng)。同一年他遇到了Percy Thomas, 棉花大王。這給他帶來(lái)了厄運(yùn)。盡管Livermore原則上拒絕和別人合作,盡管在與Thomas認(rèn)識(shí)出問(wèn)過(guò)自己重要的問(wèn)題如果他能很好的了解訊息為什么會(huì)破產(chǎn),Thomas還是把他拉下了水。Livermore漸漸扔掉了多年來(lái)獲得的經(jīng)驗(yàn),在這次冒險(xiǎn)中越陷越深,這一課陪上了3百萬(wàn)美元,而只有不到300000的回報(bào)。當(dāng)他試圖盡快贏回他的損失時(shí),犯下了又一個(gè)錯(cuò)誤。在下個(gè)月絕望的嘗試中最終背上了1百萬(wàn)的債務(wù)。
 
幾個(gè)月后他才找到力量去分析他的態(tài)度,第一次意識(shí)到了自己交易中的情緒部分。他的衰落源于自我。他已經(jīng)習(xí)以為常的去應(yīng)付失敗,然而真正把他甩出成功之路的是1907年10月24日那次過(guò)高的成就。他痛苦的學(xué)到,有時(shí)成就比失敗更讓人難以承受。1915年2月Livermore38歲時(shí)宣布破產(chǎn)。思想輕松了帶著一個(gè)老朋友的起始資金,他又開(kāi)始了嘗試。事態(tài)發(fā)展的不錯(cuò),1917年初他償還了債務(wù),盡管由于破產(chǎn)這不是必須的,他的債務(wù)人毫無(wú)例外的謝絕了他提供的利息。
 
二十年代期間Livermore總是報(bào)道的主題,他對(duì)這些基本從不評(píng)論。他的態(tài)度更增添了他的傳奇。二十年代是他的好時(shí)候。
 
從1929年夏Livermore察覺(jué)到了過(guò)熱的市場(chǎng)和惡化的供求比例。他嘗試著小規(guī)模的做空多種股票,但是很快兌現(xiàn)了因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)還沒(méi)有準(zhǔn)備好,Livermore停止了做空。在第三次的嘗試才獲得了他的位置,開(kāi)始用久經(jīng)考驗(yàn)的方式建倉(cāng)。這給他在短期內(nèi)帶來(lái)超過(guò)1億的財(cái)富。這比美國(guó)大蕭條初期多半破產(chǎn)更具影響,他收到了很多絕望的人們的死亡威脅,要突然襲擊殺死他,他應(yīng)該對(duì)這個(gè)災(zāi)難負(fù)責(zé)。
 
他達(dá)到了成就的頂峰。然而快樂(lè)并沒(méi)有伴他而來(lái),和第二任妻子的離異使他更加的沮喪,失去了投機(jī)游戲的興趣,他的財(cái)富很快的蒸發(fā)掉了。1934年僅僅他最輝煌成就的5年后再次宣布破產(chǎn),失去了一切。1939年他寫(xiě)了一本書(shū)如何交易股票,最后嘗試著東山再起,他受到了打擊,他那傳奇示的感覺(jué)不復(fù)存在。1940年11月27日,他在Sherry Netherland Hotels的廁所里用手槍結(jié)束了他的生命。
 
江恩在《江恩:華爾街四十五年》中的章節(jié)“歷史上的大炒家”,列舉了不少大炒家的故事,其中一個(gè)就是股票作手利文摩爾。江恩稱(chēng)利文摩爾是個(gè)有信用的人,他雖然屢屢破產(chǎn),但只要恢復(fù)元?dú)猓欢ㄟ€債(包括欠江恩的錢(qián))。高夫曾提到利文摩爾在1929年便徹底失敗,而江恩說(shuō)他在1934年再次破產(chǎn)后又賺了錢(qián),當(dāng)然最后確實(shí)在破產(chǎn)狀態(tài)下自殺?!督鹑谛睦韺W(xué)》的作者拉斯-特維德還提到過(guò)利文摩爾是如何逃過(guò)1929年大崩盤(pán)的,當(dāng)時(shí)他雇傭40名“統(tǒng)計(jì)員”作為助手,在沒(méi)有計(jì)算機(jī)的情況下,對(duì)下跌和上漲的股票家數(shù)進(jìn)行計(jì)算。在他們廣泛選取的1002只股票中,有614只同一時(shí)期下跌,只有338只上漲,所以盡管工業(yè)指數(shù)成份股漲勢(shì)喜人,利文摩爾感到大勢(shì)不妙,趕緊走人。
 
江恩對(duì)這位大炒家的總結(jié)是:“利文摩爾的弱點(diǎn)之一是他除了學(xué)習(xí)如何賺錢(qián)之外,什么都不學(xué)。他從不學(xué)習(xí)保存資金的方法。他貪心,有權(quán)力欲,所以當(dāng)他賺了一大筆錢(qián)以后,就不再穩(wěn)妥地進(jìn)行交易。他試圖讓市場(chǎng)跟著他的意愿走,而不是等待市場(chǎng)自然地轉(zhuǎn)勢(shì)”。這也是所有最終失敗的大炒家的通病,當(dāng)他們賺到大錢(qián)后,就忘卻了遇事小心謹(jǐn)慎的成功之道,變得過(guò)度交易,沒(méi)考慮意外的出現(xiàn),忘乎所以,最后市場(chǎng)經(jīng)常只有他一個(gè)買(mǎi)家,其他都是賣(mài)家。
 
Livermore最后自殺是因?yàn)榛橐錾畹氖?dǎo)致抑郁癥,而非破產(chǎn)自殺。(如果你做過(guò)研究你會(huì)知道他曾經(jīng)四次破產(chǎn),所以破產(chǎn)對(duì)于他不是什么打擊,并且他破產(chǎn)后的生活還算過(guò)的可以;1934年破產(chǎn)后的第一件事是與他妻子去歐洲旅行了20月,在上甲板前,他對(duì)記者說(shuō):“我希望解決我思想中的一些問(wèn)題”)。除了他自己的最后不幸,他的家人大多也以悲劇收?qǐng)?,他妻子曾?jīng)槍擊他的兒子Jesse livermore Jr.,他的兒子Jesse Livermore Jr. 深度酒精中毒,虐待妻子并且差一點(diǎn)殺死他妻子。
 
股票作手回憶錄是在1929年股災(zāi)后他的人生達(dá)到最高峰時(shí)寫(xiě)的,由一位記者進(jìn)行編輯潤(rùn)色,類(lèi)似回憶錄,但是并非完全史實(shí),而是有些藝術(shù)虛構(gòu)。。。
(文章摘自外匯論壇,發(fā)貼人:Leonardo1977) 

 
Izul注:本篇介紹資料提到Livermore在Sherry Netherland Hotels的廁所里自殺,但有國(guó)外其它資料記載的是他在飯店里醉酒后留下遺言,然后坐在衣帽間的沙發(fā)上開(kāi)槍自殺。

文章引用自:http://


對(duì)杰西·利文摩爾(Jesse Livermore)的生時(shí)校正


在金融市場(chǎng)這個(gè)領(lǐng)域,W.D. Gann(William D. Gann:威廉·江恩)和Jesse Livermore(Jesse L. Livermore:杰西·利文摩爾,利文摩爾也有翻譯成利物莫、利物默等)是兩位令我敬仰的大師。Gann以其深?yuàn)W、玄妙而精準(zhǔn)的分析技術(shù)流傳至今,被他的時(shí)代譽(yù)為交易大師。而Livermore則被稱(chēng)為最具傳奇色彩的投機(jī)奇才,一生閃亮而富有魅力,至今仍是許多青年專(zhuān)業(yè)投資家的偶像。
 
多年以前我專(zhuān)門(mén)收集過(guò)他們兩位的資料。Gann的信息很容易獲得,應(yīng)有盡有,由于他出版的專(zhuān)著多,加上聲名顯赫,所以在AstroDatabank的名人數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)里就可以找到他的記載。Livermore就不同了,他雖名望盛極一時(shí),也有著作出版,但影響范圍主要是在專(zhuān)業(yè)領(lǐng)域,另外,以自殺作為其人生最后的收局也為他的一世英名蒙上了缺憾。一直以來(lái)我沒(méi)有找到他的完整出生資料,以此為憾。令人意外的是,前兩天和朋友聊天時(shí)提起了他,他的出生日期竟被朋友找到了。。。拿到他的出生日期,我腦子里閃過(guò)的第一個(gè)念頭就是要找出他的出生時(shí)間。
 
根據(jù)記載,他的出生日期是1877年7月26日,出生于美國(guó)的South Acton。South Acton的經(jīng)緯數(shù)據(jù)為:42.27N,71.27W,根據(jù)美國(guó)州數(shù)據(jù)采用的時(shí)區(qū)馬塞諸塞州按西5區(qū)計(jì)算。下面來(lái)記錄對(duì)他的本命盤(pán)時(shí)間的推導(dǎo)細(xì)節(jié),以紀(jì)念這位傳奇人物。
 
對(duì)于Livermore留給人們最深刻的印象是:自我、高傲、正直、對(duì)數(shù)字擁有極好的記憶力和敏銳的思維、喜好賭博和投機(jī)、財(cái)來(lái)財(cái)去、多情、奢侈的生活、三次婚姻、不爭(zhēng)氣的下一代、以及最后自殺結(jié)束生命。
 
首先看日盤(pán)特征,自我、高傲是獅子座的典型特征,木星落射手強(qiáng)勢(shì),與金星形成準(zhǔn)確的相位利財(cái),日水合相為人聰明好思考,火土合相兇星力量集中,既代表頑強(qiáng)的意志力、專(zhuān)橫固執(zhí)的行為,也存在著危險(xiǎn)、暴力傾向。大凡生出名人的盤(pán),多數(shù)盤(pán)中擁有準(zhǔn)確相位的行星。Livermore是金木準(zhǔn)確相拱在一度之內(nèi),財(cái)運(yùn)極強(qiáng),另外,日水合相的同時(shí)形成緯照,智慧超凡。這個(gè)日盤(pán)沒(méi)有顯著的恒星照耀,所以初步推測(cè)必定有關(guān)鍵行星落在四角。
 
對(duì)杰西·利文摩爾(Jesse <wbr>Livermore)的生時(shí)校正
 
再來(lái)考慮定位宮位問(wèn)題。賭博投機(jī)興趣和運(yùn)氣以5宮為首要,先放入木星,木星廟旺落本位宮,投機(jī)天賦很強(qiáng)。火土兇星匯聚并未對(duì)其關(guān)鍵行星產(chǎn)生大的刑克,所以自殺的悲慘結(jié)局就首先考慮火土落入8宮,這樣上升點(diǎn)就定位在獅子座,進(jìn)一步強(qiáng)化了他的自我而正直的特征。接著,數(shù)字天賦和交易(短線投機(jī))才華以水星為代表,僅是日水相位還不足以透視出他超群的水星力量,將上升點(diǎn)調(diào)整到水星附近,讓水星在盤(pán)中最為突出,相應(yīng)地水星為2宮和11宮的主宰星,突出了他的財(cái)運(yùn)和人緣(多次破產(chǎn)均有朋友相助,同時(shí)一生亦以喜好豪華party聞名)。剩下的金星落1宮,符合他為人多情、奢侈豪華生活的特點(diǎn),月亮落在7宮,重視婚姻家庭生活,但宮主星為土星,與火星合在8宮受克,婚姻給他帶來(lái)的災(zāi)難是深重的。
 
在沒(méi)有強(qiáng)力恒星的支持下,考慮到Livermore對(duì)數(shù)字的超人天賦,就進(jìn)一步將水星定位在準(zhǔn)確與上升點(diǎn)相合的位置。這樣福點(diǎn)落在水瓶座22-23度,福點(diǎn)有金木相位守護(hù)大吉,但同時(shí)定位星土星受克,幸運(yùn)與災(zāi)難相輔相成,太陽(yáng)也與上升點(diǎn)相合,但落在了12宮,這與他為人神秘、低調(diào)、不事張揚(yáng)相符,同時(shí)12宮的精神、心理障礙亦是他晚年自殺的主要原因之一,12宮主宰星月亮落7宮,體現(xiàn)出婚姻家庭是造成太陽(yáng)(命主)悲劇的罪魁禍?zhǔn)住?/span>
 
最后剩下的基本點(diǎn)是關(guān)于其子女情況。Livermore的兩位公子都是絕對(duì)的帥哥,相貌堂堂,但卻是“逆子”,兩個(gè)兒子的放縱和逆天行為估計(jì)也給他的晚年帶來(lái)很大的沮喪和痛苦。星盤(pán)中5宮落入木星,但對(duì)其子女卻未能發(fā)揮其投機(jī)天賦般的作用。木星是受到火土的潛在威脅的,但這個(gè)相位由木星主導(dǎo),不算兇險(xiǎn),只是在開(kāi)啟了子女點(diǎn)(男性)這個(gè)命運(yùn)點(diǎn)后,就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)它落在了雙子19-20度,準(zhǔn)確地與火土相刑,這才是關(guān)鍵。那么針對(duì)5宮的投機(jī)情況,打開(kāi)投機(jī)點(diǎn),它出現(xiàn)在巨蟹24度,恰屬于恒星Procyon的位置,這是一顆兇吉屬性都很極端的星,代表行動(dòng)力、突然的成功然后陷入災(zāi)難、提升及暴力,兇吉參半亦是Livermore一生交易的真實(shí)寫(xiě)照,巨蟹24度屬性為火,主宰星為木星,從另一個(gè)側(cè)面體現(xiàn)出其投機(jī)運(yùn)和操作風(fēng)格。
 
這樣,Livermore的星盤(pán)就基本出來(lái)了。接下來(lái)再根據(jù)他的大事記結(jié)合推運(yùn)對(duì)生時(shí)進(jìn)行校驗(yàn)和調(diào)整。由于有關(guān)Livermore的事件記載很少有精確到日的,所以時(shí)間校正的精確程度不求分秒必爭(zhēng)。
 
我習(xí)慣以Degree-for-year象征推運(yùn)作為主要手段,對(duì)個(gè)別有日期記載的事件,再考量流年的影響。據(jù)說(shuō)校正生時(shí)最好的方法是精確計(jì)算的主限法,若根據(jù)ZET軟件中的Direction Equatorial推導(dǎo),Livermore的生時(shí)應(yīng)比5:12提早一些,不過(guò)比較之后我感覺(jué)簡(jiǎn)化了的Direction效果更好,其校正的結(jié)果配合流年事件的對(duì)應(yīng)效果也較Direction Equatorial更佳。
 
1、1891年,Livermore14歲時(shí)離開(kāi)家鄉(xiāng)打工,同時(shí)開(kāi)始投機(jī)交易。
 
對(duì)只有年份的事件,我按其生日做Direction推運(yùn)盤(pán)。這一年,水星攜上升點(diǎn)推進(jìn)到獅子座的25度,與木星形成準(zhǔn)確的相位,代表機(jī)遇和新發(fā)展。同時(shí)火土推進(jìn)到白羊3-4度,與本命太陽(yáng)形成準(zhǔn)確相位,這個(gè)考驗(yàn)也體現(xiàn)出了那年的磨難,先是從家鄉(xiāng)逃離到波士頓,然后再是在工作中因參與投機(jī)交易的緣故而被解雇。之后,Livermore開(kāi)始了專(zhuān)職投機(jī)之路。
 
對(duì)杰西·利文摩爾(Jesse <wbr>Livermore)的生時(shí)校正
 
 
2、1901年24歲時(shí),他獲取了5萬(wàn)美金的巨大收益,但隨后做空虧掉了全部,第二次破產(chǎn)。
 
這一年的推運(yùn)盤(pán)是太陽(yáng)推進(jìn)到獅子座28度,與中天相拱,Livermore的事業(yè)就是錢(qián)財(cái),那年是他有生以來(lái)達(dá)到的第一個(gè)高度。同時(shí),命運(yùn)弄人,他本命的亮點(diǎn)——金木卻推進(jìn)到處女座的20度和摩羯座的19度,準(zhǔn)確地與本命火土對(duì)應(yīng)著,誘發(fā)著8宮的火土破財(cái)。

對(duì)杰西·利文摩爾(Jesse <wbr>Livermore)的生時(shí)校正
 
 
3、1907年10月,他達(dá)到了一生之中的第二個(gè)頂峰,JP Morgan(摩根財(cái)團(tuán))請(qǐng)求Livermore停止放空以挽救市場(chǎng),這一年他獲利豐厚。但命運(yùn)再次弄人,也是這一年發(fā)生了轉(zhuǎn)折,因合作問(wèn)題被人拉下水,隨后即開(kāi)始虧錢(qián),最終虧掉全部后并負(fù)債百萬(wàn)美元。
 
資料記載的是10月24日Morgan派人拜訪他,這一天的流年是木星經(jīng)過(guò)上升點(diǎn)和水星,太陽(yáng)經(jīng)過(guò)下中天,金星位于天底支持著經(jīng)過(guò)上升點(diǎn)的木星,是他春風(fēng)得意之刻。
 
對(duì)杰西·利文摩爾(Jesse <wbr>Livermore)的生時(shí)校正
 

從推運(yùn)盤(pán)看,這一年金星推進(jìn)到26度,與本命木星的相位緊密,命主星太陽(yáng)推進(jìn)到第二宮宮頭(1906年進(jìn)入),不過(guò),這個(gè)位置也恰巧是推進(jìn)到了本命南交點(diǎn)的位置,推進(jìn)中的南交點(diǎn)也同時(shí)與本命太陽(yáng)糾纏著,財(cái)來(lái)財(cái)去再一次發(fā)生在Livermore身上。(因Blog文章圖片數(shù)量限制,本推運(yùn)圖略)
 
4、1915年2月,Livermore宣布破產(chǎn),這是Livermore第三次破產(chǎn)。
 
先看Livermore1915年2月的月亮返照?qǐng)D。返照火星落下降點(diǎn),交點(diǎn)軸線掃過(guò)其本命金星,土星對(duì)沖著木星,而木星則移動(dòng)到了本命交點(diǎn)的軸線,這是一個(gè)即折騰又困苦的一個(gè)月。(因Blog文章圖片數(shù)量限制,月亮返照?qǐng)D略)
 
再返回到象征推運(yùn)盤(pán)中,1915年2月,Livermore的本命土星推進(jìn)到了中天白羊28度,與中天準(zhǔn)確相合,水星攜上升點(diǎn)推進(jìn)到處女座18度,與對(duì)面的火星對(duì)沖。不過(guò),土星過(guò)了10宮形成了挫折之后亦會(huì)帶來(lái)機(jī)遇。Livermore宣布破產(chǎn)后債務(wù)即被免除,他沒(méi)有了思想上的壓力可以輕裝上陣了,所以當(dāng)他恢復(fù)交易之后再次開(kāi)始賺錢(qián)。盤(pán)中的火星在白羊26度,推進(jìn)兩年后也與中天相合,火星是其10宮主宰星,所兩年后也就是1917年初,他清償了所有被免除的債務(wù),并繼續(xù)盈利。
 
對(duì)杰西·利文摩爾(Jesse <wbr>Livermore)的生時(shí)校正
 
 
5、1929年夏季,Livermore達(dá)到了一生第三個(gè)頂峰,也是最后的輝煌,他做空股票市場(chǎng)令股市崩盤(pán),在三個(gè)月內(nèi)下跌近50%,引發(fā)了持續(xù)3年的熊市。但也正是在這一年,他的運(yùn)勢(shì)在達(dá)到巔峰后開(kāi)始走下坡路了,二婚的妻子離開(kāi)了他,財(cái)運(yùn)也開(kāi)始衰敗。5年后,也就是1934年,Livermore第四次破產(chǎn)。
 
對(duì)杰西·利文摩爾(Jesse <wbr>Livermore)的生時(shí)校正

根據(jù)道瓊斯指數(shù)的走勢(shì)圖,1929年的股市崩盤(pán)開(kāi)始于9月初。以這個(gè)時(shí)間做出的推運(yùn)盤(pán)中,火土位于盤(pán)中高點(diǎn)與上升下降點(diǎn)相刑,標(biāo)志著下坡路的開(kāi)始,木星前一年合月之后開(kāi)始離開(kāi),太陽(yáng)也與木星呈出相位運(yùn)動(dòng)。5年后,火土向前推進(jìn)5度,與月亮準(zhǔn)確相刑,Livermore再次破產(chǎn)。
 
6、1940年11月27日,Livermore開(kāi)槍自殺。
 
Livermore有具體日期記載的事件不多,死亡日期就顯得格外重要。根據(jù)有關(guān)資料記載,Livermore自殺后的第二日其子才去認(rèn)尸,所以自殺的時(shí)間發(fā)生在午后或夜晚的可能性較大。1940年11月27日那天的流年星盤(pán)上,土星位于盤(pán)中高點(diǎn)與上升點(diǎn)和水星相刑,火星經(jīng)過(guò)4宮與本命太陽(yáng)相刑,同時(shí)窺視著8宮宮首,流年金木尾隨著土火但沒(méi)有兇星力量強(qiáng),流年水星與12宮主月亮準(zhǔn)確相刑并與8宮的火土相拱,自殺是在一種異常沮喪和不安定的精神狀態(tài)下進(jìn)行的,并意圖尋求解脫,流年的月亮當(dāng)日經(jīng)過(guò)天蝎座,同時(shí)引發(fā)了流年的火星、土星、水星的激烈作用。結(jié)合Livermore臨死前留給他第三任妻子的信尾寫(xiě)著:我的人生是一場(chǎng)失敗!這個(gè)投機(jī)奇才亡于心魔。
 
對(duì)杰西·利文摩爾(Jesse <wbr>Livermore)的生時(shí)校正
 
最后看看Livermore結(jié)束生命時(shí)的象征推運(yùn)盤(pán)。盤(pán)中突出的是金星落在下中天過(guò)1度,木星六合中天過(guò)1度,事實(shí)上Livermore于1939年著書(shū)出版,行星對(duì)那年的影響還是有利的,只是不料相隔一年他就自殺了。推進(jìn)中的水星運(yùn)行到天枰14度,與12宮宮首形成準(zhǔn)確相刑,預(yù)示著心靈和精神層面的一個(gè)關(guān)口。福點(diǎn),另一個(gè)盤(pán)中突出之處,被火土準(zhǔn)確相刑。無(wú)獨(dú)有偶,如果計(jì)算出Livermore本命的Anareta點(diǎn),就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)它與福點(diǎn)位于同一位置,即22度28分,算是巧合,火土兇星同時(shí)對(duì)這兩個(gè)點(diǎn)形成威脅,表明行運(yùn)進(jìn)入到了生死攸關(guān)的一年,可惜Livermore沒(méi)能熬過(guò)這一關(guān)。
 
對(duì)杰西·利文摩爾(Jesse <wbr>Livermore)的生時(shí)校正
 
 
根據(jù)前述的推運(yùn)校驗(yàn),看來(lái)初步確定的5點(diǎn)12分生時(shí)已沒(méi)有再進(jìn)行調(diào)整的必要。目前手頭擁有的詳細(xì)資料還有限,若日后能找到關(guān)于他更翔實(shí)的傳記,再仔細(xì)參對(duì)。
 


Livermore一生傳奇而閃亮,但卻是個(gè)悲劇終結(jié),他的勇氣、智慧、正直和超人的意志力所閃耀出的魅力永不會(huì)磨滅,而他更以自己的屢次慘痛失敗警醒后人什么才是投機(jī)交易的最大敵人。Gann和Livermore是老相識(shí),Livermore曾通過(guò)Gann的經(jīng)紀(jì)公司做交易,在Livermore破產(chǎn)的時(shí)候Gann曾支援過(guò)他,二人之間亦有很好的友誼,但他們對(duì)于投機(jī)和操作的風(fēng)格卻有著天壤之別。Gann在其著作《華爾街45年》里對(duì)這位大炒家的總結(jié)是:“Livermore的弱點(diǎn)之一是他除了學(xué)習(xí)如何賺錢(qián)之外,什么都不學(xué)。他從不學(xué)習(xí)保存資金的方法。他貪心,有權(quán)力欲,所以當(dāng)他賺了一大筆錢(qián)以后,就不再穩(wěn)妥地進(jìn)行交易。他試圖讓市場(chǎng)跟著他的意愿走,而不是等待市場(chǎng)自然地轉(zhuǎn)勢(shì)”。Gann依靠技術(shù)并遵循規(guī)則適度交易,保持了不敗的記錄,這才是真正意義上的成功者。如果Livermore能夠吸取Gann的交易理念和規(guī)則并恪守,那又會(huì)是怎樣的一個(gè)結(jié)局?但Livermore就是Livermore,其人性的弱點(diǎn)損毀了他的超凡才賦,命運(yùn)決定了他譜寫(xiě)出的生命歷程是閃爍著無(wú)盡榮耀的悲劇,正如《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》所引用的Livermore墓志銘作出的評(píng)價(jià):他的去世為一個(gè)時(shí)代劃上了句號(hào),他的功過(guò)任由后人評(píng)說(shuō)。。。(Izul/2006.5.5,23:07)
 

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