|
Russian pensions 俄羅斯養(yǎng)老保險制度 An unaffordable system 養(yǎng)不起的制度 Russia’s prime minister signs a disastrous pension reform 俄羅斯總理簽署非常失敗的養(yǎng)老保險改革計劃 Oct 6th 2012 | MOSCOW | from the print edition of The Economist 譯者：BearDY Drink-as-you-go funding 把資金一口一口喝掉 VLADIMIR PUTIN is facing a dilemma: how can Russia’s president fulfill his campaign promises to increase social spending, especially when they were directed toward his political base, while also ensuring that the country’s deficit does not become unsustainable? He is keen to prolong the past decade’s economic stability, which was his biggest electoral asset. 當下，弗拉基米爾·普京正在左右為難：要實現(xiàn)競選承諾，增加社會福利開支，同時又要保證俄羅斯赤字尚可維持，俄羅斯總統(tǒng)如何是好，尤其當這些承諾的對象都是作為他政治根基的群體時，該如何應(yīng)對？他希望把過去十年里經(jīng)濟的穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)延續(xù)下去——這份穩(wěn)定是他在選舉中最大的優(yōu)勢。 If the direction of the country’s pension system is any indication, Mr Putin and his advisers are choosing short-term social and political stability at the expense of long-term growth and investment. On October 1st Dmitry Medvedev, the prime minister and former president, signed a long-expected strategy for reforming the pension system that would, among other things, nearly eliminate the funded component, in which workers pay into a personal investment account they claim upon retirement. The money freed up from this plan is supposed to plug the $50 billion hole in the pay-as-you-go system. 如果說俄羅斯養(yǎng)老保險制度的方向有所暗示的話，那么普京及其顧問正在選擇以犧牲長期的增長和投資來換取社會及政治短期的穩(wěn)定。10月1日，俄羅斯前總統(tǒng)、現(xiàn)總理德米特里·梅德韋杰夫簽署了人們翹首以盼的養(yǎng)老保險改革戰(zhàn)略，不言其他，該戰(zhàn)略計劃幾乎摒除基金制，即工人們把資金存入個人累積賬戶里，退休后，成為他們所需的養(yǎng)老金。于是，此計劃空出來的資金應(yīng)該拿來填補現(xiàn)收現(xiàn)付制[1]留下的500億美元的空缺。 The strategy signed by Mr Medvedev calls for the funded component to decrease from 6% to 2% of the overall pension system. (The plan is still preliminary.) At the moment, those funds are just 1.8 billion roubles ($58m), but they act as a catalyst for domestic investment and support a growing industry of fund managers. The funded pillar could also go a long way towards filling the gap in the Russian market for long-term financing, which is necessary for infrastructure development. With those funds gone, any notion of turning Moscow into a global financial centre—a favourite talking point of Mr Medvedev’s presidency—would probably be finished. 梅德韋杰夫簽署的這項戰(zhàn)略計劃需要把基金制所占養(yǎng)老金整體的比例從6%降至2%。該計劃仍是初步措施?，F(xiàn)在，該項資金僅有18億盧布（合5800萬美元），然而這些資金促進了（俄羅斯）國內(nèi)投資，支撐起了一個日益壯大的基金經(jīng)理人行業(yè)。資金支柱也可能逐步幫助俄羅斯市場填補差距，資助長線融資——要發(fā)展基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，必然要有長線融資。假如沒有了這些資金，任何把莫斯科轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)槿蚪鹑谥行牡拇蛩恪返马f杰夫就任總統(tǒng)期間最愛的話題——或許就消失殆盡了。 Virtually all Russia’s best economists, as well as the technocrats inside the finance ministry, have warned against cutting the funded pillar. Alexei Kudrin, a former finance minister, has waged a campaign in the pages of Vedomosti, a newspaper, against the idea. Vladimir Nazarov of the Gaidar Institute calls it a “real disaster” that will only finance the pension fund’s current deficit for six years, after which the deficit will begin to grow again—and this time without the money in the funded portion as a stopgap. 事實上，俄羅斯所有頂尖的經(jīng)濟學家，以及財政部技術(shù)專家都提醒過當局不能破壞資金支柱。前財政部長阿列克謝·庫德林在《俄羅斯商業(yè)日報》上攻擊該意見。蓋達爾機構(gòu)成員弗拉基米爾·納扎羅夫（Vladimir Nazarov）稱之為“實實在在的災(zāi)難”，僅僅會為養(yǎng)老金現(xiàn)有的赤字負擔六年的費用，六年后，赤字將再次上升——而這次就沒有可供填補的資金了。 The only way forward, argue nearly all experts, is to raise Russia’s low pension age of 55 for women and 60 for men. Both the IMF and the members of Strategy 2020, an expert group formed by the Russian government, call for a gradual increase of the pension age to 63. 幾乎所有專家都一致認為，唯一的出路只有提高俄羅斯公民領(lǐng)取養(yǎng)老金的最低年齡，現(xiàn)在的退休年齡是女性55歲，男性60歲。國際貨幣基金組織和戰(zhàn)略2020成員（由俄政府組建的專家組）呼吁，把退休年齡逐步提高到63歲[2]。 The move is thought to be politically dangerous, if not impossible. Mr Putin has increasingly relied on the support of the rural population and industrial workers, as well as the 40% or so of the electorate who are elderly. One of Mr Putin’s many pre-election promises, now turned into official directives, was to keep the pension age intact. That order left the government with few options. 人們認為，這一舉措即使能實現(xiàn)，也有較大的政治風險。普京越來越依賴農(nóng)村人口和產(chǎn)業(yè)工人，以及約占選民40%左右的老年人。普京在選舉前許下的諾言之一如今已成為官方指令——退休年齡保持不變。此項命令，讓政府幾乎別無選擇。 Mr Medvedev and his team were thus handed an unenviable task. No one disputes that today’s pension system, created in 2002, needs some kind of reform. Part of the problem is demography. Declining birth rates in the 1980s and 1990s have left Russia with too few workers to support those in retirement; birth rates have stabilised in recent years but too late to affect the looming pension crisis. Today there are 100 workers for every 87 pensioners, says Evsey Gurvich of the Economic Expert Group, who led the Strategy 2020 pension task-force; by 2020, that figure will be 100 workers for 100 pensioners. 因此，梅德韋杰夫及其團隊接了一個燙手山芋。現(xiàn)有的養(yǎng)老保險制度制定于2002年，這一制度需要進行改革，沒人提出異議。部分問題出自人口。八、九十年代出生率走低，使得俄羅斯沒有足夠的勞動者支撐退休金繳費負擔；近年來，出生率趨于穩(wěn)定，但是要與一步步逼近的退休金危機抗衡，已經(jīng)太晚了。據(jù)經(jīng)戰(zhàn)略2020退休金任務(wù)組領(lǐng)導(dǎo)、經(jīng)濟專家小組成員Evsey Gurvich稱，現(xiàn)在，每100個勞動者要負擔87個老年人的養(yǎng)老金；截至2020年，撫養(yǎng)比將達到每100個勞動者負擔100個老年人的養(yǎng)老金。 Mr Gurvich warns of a creeping “gerontocracy”. He predicts a deepening of “paternalistic thinking”, in which citizens regard the state, and not themselves, as the source of their pensions. Perhaps that’s exactly what the Kremlin has in mind. Gurvich先生警告，俄羅斯政府可能會慢慢被養(yǎng)老問題占據(jù)。他預(yù)計，依賴政府的思維會加深，公民向國家伸手索要養(yǎng)老金，而不是自己。也許，克里姆林方面正是意欲如此。 from the print edition | Europe 譯注： 1. 養(yǎng)老保險制度兩次改革：俄羅斯對養(yǎng)老保險制度的改革分為兩個階段，1997-2001年為第一階段，稱為'新精算方式'改革；從2002年1月1日開始實行的改革被認為是第二階段的改革，主要內(nèi)容是建立三支柱的養(yǎng)老保險制度。 2. 提高退休年齡：俄羅斯男性平均壽命為59歲，如果退休年齡提高到63歲，很少人愿意繳費。 更多資料：http://euroasia./news/133749.htm |
|
|
